牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）：2022年中东和北非城市长期展望报告（英文版）（19页）.pdf

1、MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA CITIESThe long-term outlookAnthony Bernard-SasgesDecember 20220.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Sub-Saharan AfricaAsia PacificMiddle East and North AfricaGlobal 900 citiesLatin AmericaNorth AmericaEuropeGDPEmploymentPopulationGDP,employment,and population growth,2023-40Annual a

2、verage growth,%Source:Oxford Economics,African and Middle Eastern Cities November 2022The global contextMiddle Eastern and North African(MENA)cities are forecast to experience some of the fastest rates of employment and population growth over the long-term.However,GDP growth is forecast to be middle

3、 of the global pack.We expect GDP growth to average 2.4%per year between 2023-2040 in the MENA regions cities,which will trail sub-Saharan African and Asia Pacific cities,but still outperform those in the Americas and Europe.Employment in the regions cities will grow by 1.6%per year,and population a

4、t 1.5%.These rates are faster than anywhere else in the world,except for in sub-Saharan Africa.The regions strong population and employment growth is typical of its mixed demographic profile,with migration and natural change both playing important roles.However,the slowing demand for oil amongst oth

5、er factors will mean overall productivity growth will be muted.Whilst the regions cities will experience higher productivity growth than sub-Saharan African cities,it will trail the rest of the world.23Economic outlookIranian cities are amongst the fastest growing in the Middle East4In the Middle Ea

6、stern region,Iranian cities are expected to be amongst the fastest growing.The city of Qom will lead the pack(3.6%),closely followed by Kermanshah(3.5%).The strong outlook for Iranian cities is largely the product of a gradual return to normality following years of economic crises.With a potential d