波士顿咨询（BCG）：2026年航空旅行需求展望报告：收入与成本双线攀升（英文版）（15页）.pdf

1、JANUARY 2026 RevenuesAnd CostsAre Rising Air Travel Demand Outlook 2026Five trends to watch for in 2026 and beyond Source:BCG analysis.Note:Reflects information available as of November 2025.FSC=full-service carrier;LCC=low-cost carrier;CASK=cost per average seat kilometer;RASK=revenue per average s

2、eat kilometer;OEM=original equipment manufacturer;XLR=extra-long range;ULR=ultra-long range.21Macro factors driving volatilityGeopolitical turbulence(e.g.,tariffs),economic uncertainty,and infrastructure reliability(e.g.,air traffic controller shortages,IT outages)continue to affect supply and deman

3、d patterns,driving volatility for airlines worldwide Divergencein marginsThe airline industry is in a period of profitability,although profits are not distributed evenly,as FSC and LCC performance diverges in North America and Asia-Pacific Cost focus and emerging AI use casesGrowth in CASK is outpac

4、ing RASK,leading airlines to explore permanent shifts in cost structure,such as consolidation or leveraging AI to help cut costs 34Easing OEM delaysWhile there is cautious optimism that aircraft production will ramp up,any growth remains vulnerable to raw material and labor shortages,supply chain di

5、sruptions,and increasing regionalization New fleettypesFleet types such as the A321XLR are entering the market at scale,and networks are being reshaped with new cost structures as a result.For example,XLR aircraft can open transatlantic narrowbody routes,and A350-1000 ULR aircraft will enable ultra-

6、long-haul flights 5Three macro factors create volatility for aviation by shifting supply anddemand patternsSource:BCG analysis.Note:Reflects information available as of November 2025.ATC=air traffic controller.Consumer sentiment and spending power Changes in GDP growth,the job market,recession risks