IMF：2026年世界经济展望报告：全球经济：在分化力量中保持稳定（1月刊）（英文版）（13页）.pdf

1、WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK2026JANINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDUPDATEGlobal Economy:Steady amid Divergent Forces International Monetary Fund|January 2026 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE JAN 2026 Global Economy:Steady amid Divergent Forces Global growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3 percent in 2026

2、and at 3.2 percent in 2027:rates similar to the estimated 3.3 percent outturn in 2025.The forecast marks a small upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with that in the October 2025 World Economic Outlook(WEO).This steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of div

3、ergent forces.Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology,including artificial intelligence(AI),more so in North America and Asia than in other regions,as well as fiscal and monetary support,broadly accommodative financial conditions,a

4、nd adaptability of the private sector.Global headline inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026 and further to 3.4 percent in 2027.The inflation projections are also broadly unchanged from those in October and envisage inflation returning to target

5、 more gradually in the United States than in other large economies.Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.Reevaluation of productivity growth expectations about AI could lead to a decline in investment and trigger an abrupt financial market correction,spreading from AI-linked companies t

6、o other segments and eroding household wealth.Trade tensions could flare up,prolonging uncertainty and weighing more heavily on activity.Domestic political tensions or geopolitical tensions could erupt,introducing new layers of uncertainty and disrupting the global economy through their impact on fi