麦肯锡：2026年及未来美国医疗行业展望报告：机遇与挑战并存（英文版）（20页）.pdf

1、January 2026Healthcare PracticeWhat to expect in US healthcare in 2026 and beyondThe healthcare industry faces successive waves of challenging trends,with glimmers of opportunity in select segments.by Neha Patel and Shubham Singhalwith Ankit JainThe US healthcare system continues to face considerabl

2、e financial strain,although there are pockets of opportunity.Industry EBITDA as a percentage of national health expenditures(NHE)fell from 11.2 percent in 2019 to 8.9 percent in 2024.In 2027,the picture is expected to worsen slightly,with industry EBITDA as a percentage of NHE expected to drop to 8.

3、7 percent.Payers and providers have borne the brunt of the decline to date and will continue to feel financial pressure in the immediate future.For example,payers are facing enrollment declines in Medicaid and Affordable Care Act(ACA)plans because of regulatory changes.Meanwhile,providers could expe

4、rience an increase in uncompensated care and loss of reimbursement.Looking ahead to 2028 and 2029,we anticipate stronger results underpinned by healthcare players actions to buttress their financial position.They will likely move tactically to address pricing and costs and strategically to reallocat

5、e resources to growing market segments and pursue business portfolio and scale shifts through M&A and divestitures.While the overall near-term outlook is somber,opportunities exist in several parts of the industry.Some segments of healthcare are continuing to grow rapidly,including health services a

6、nd technology(HST),supported by advances in technology and AI;specialty pharmacy;and ambulatory care in the provider space.1 In this article,we use EBITDA as a measure of economic health of the industry.Only a fraction of EBITDA translates into net income for the industry,with net income margins in