全球纸浆展望.pdf

1、Nov,2025Global pulp outlook1Contents Global market overviewMarket challengesWhy Suzano 010203GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEWBased on Hardwood s S&DBHKP demand drivers:Organic Growth 4,8 Million tons in 5 year organic growth projection for BHKP demandA consumer driven market with consistent growth overtime4Ma

2、in trends:The majority of increase in demand is expected to come from Asian countriesChinese demand growth driven by tissue,led by urbanization on tiers 2,3 and 4 cities despite demographic declinePotential demand of other countries in Asia are based on GDP and population growth outlookSource:Hawkin

3、s Wright,Numera PPPC and Suzanos analysis.Global Market BHKP demand per segment(Total demand in Mt and paper segment share in%)Shandong1 Project 0.7 MtGuangxi3 Projects 2.6 MtNew BHKP Integrated Capacity Installed(Mt)Production learning curves and operating rate levelsThe UNCERTAINThe NEGATIVENew in

4、tegrated players competing with non-integrated players could consequently reduce market pulp demandThe POSITIVEReliance on market pulpwood reduce players effective competitivenessConsiderations to market pulp fundamentalsSource:RISI,Afry,TTO and Suzanos analysis.Fujian1 Project 1.2 Mt5New Chinese in

5、tegrated capacities headwinds coming from NEW CHINESE INTEGRATED CAPACITIESseveral uncertain factors can determine the impact in market pulp demandPlayer APlayer BPlayer CPlayer DPlayer E20242025Start up dateAdjusted demand growth reduced to 1 million tons considering potential verticalization impac

6、tMain announced projects2:Suzano Cerrado Fujian Liansheng APP OKI II Arauco SucuriMain conversions:Bracell to dissolving pulpSuzano Limeira to fluff pulpAltri Biotek to dissolving pulp1.New capacities in line with the latest estimates and market announcements.Include closure assumptions.2.Other repr