国际清洁交通委员会：航空愿景2050：迈向气候中和增长的潜力研究报告（英文版）（73页）.pdf

1、Aviation Vision 2050The potential for climate-neutral growthXINYI SOLA ZHENG,JAYANT MUKHOPADHAYA PH.D.,JONATHAN BENOIT,SUPRAJA N.KUMAR,DAN RUTHERFORD PH.D.,DENIZ RHODE,DANIEL SITOMPULSEPTEMBER 2025ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe authors thank ICCT researchers Ana Beatriz Rebouas and Gabe Alvarez for their though

2、tful feedback.We are also grateful to the external reviewersTim Johnson(Transport&Environment),Marc Shapiro(Breakthrough Energy),Tom Opderbeck and Sarah Chou(American Airlines),and Jerrold Cline(GE Aerospace Research)for their valuable inputs.This work was conducted with generous support from Climat

3、e Imperative Foundation.International Council on Clean Transportation 1500 K Street NW,Suite 650 Washington,DC 20005communicationstheicct.org|www.theicct.org|TheICCT 2025 International Council on Clean Transportation(ID 445)iICCT REPORT|AVIATION VISION 2050:THE POTENTIAL FOR CLIMATE-NEUTRAL GROWTHEX

4、ECUTIVE SUMMARYAviation is a growing contributor to climate change,with effects extending beyond carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions to include short-lived climate pollutants(SLCPs)such as nitrogen oxides,black carbon,and contrail cirrus.In 2022,the International Civil Aviation Organization agreed to achie

5、ve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050,but the industry is not on track to deliver the scale of fuel efficiency improvements,sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)uptake,and zero-emission aircraft development required to meet that goal.Recent advances in the scientific understanding of SLCPs have attracted atten

6、tion to the potential rapid reductions in aviation-attributable warming through contrail mitigation.But no deep decarbonization roadmaps for aviation have been updated to reflect SLCP controls.This report updates the ICCTs Vision 2050 decarbonization roadmap for the aviation sector by quantifying ho