丸红（MARUBENI）：2026年世界经济展望报告：波动环境下全球经济增长预期趋稳（英文版）（20页）.pdf

1、World Economic Outlook 2026 Steady Global Growth Expected Despite Volatile ConditionsJanuary 2026*Translated from the original Japanese version released on December 18,2025(slightly modified)Global Economy(p.3)Steady growth despite structural changes and downside risksThree key factors that could im

2、pact the global economy in 2026Affordability crisis,erosion of the international economic order,the expanding AI economy2Erosion of the international economic orderAffordability CrisisThe Expanding AI economy Affordability crisis(pp.4-9)In the United States,the affordability crisis,triggered by the

3、rising cost of living,has developed into a top political issue.Changing policy priorities could force policy course corrections,or policies could also drift in the absence of effective solutions.It is important to note that affordability issues could also lead to similar policy course corrections in

4、 countries other than the United States.Erosion of the international economic order(pp.10-16)The erosion of the international economic order,which was already evident,has accelerated in response to the US tariff measures.While the short-term backlash from the 2025 frontloading is occurring,countries

5、 and companies are seeking ways to adapt to the new environment.Structural changes in trade and investment flows will encourage survival of the fittest in a new competitive environment.The Expanding AI Economy(pp.17-20)Artificial intelligence is already boosting the current economy in the form of la

6、rge-scale capital investment and growth expectations in the stock market,even without further development.Its impact is wide-ranging,including the construction of data centers,the spread of cross-sectional applications,and its impact on the labor and electricity markets.Meanwhile,the risk of an AI b