穆迪：2026年全球汽车市场更新报告（英文版）（21页）.pdf

1、Global Autos Market Update 20261The framework for US tariffs on autos and auto parts is settlingHow will global automakers and parts suppliers adapt to alleviate the burden?2Changes in emission regulations and purchase incentives will impact the adoption of electric vehicles in China,Europe and the

2、USCan lower sales translate into better earnings?3Fierce competition in the Chinese auto marketWill global automakers and suppliers adapt or retreat?4Challenged export markets,increased competition and muted domestic demandHow are European automakers preparing for lower-for-longer volumes?5US consum

3、ers are becoming more anxious about inflation,tariffs and the labor marketShould auto captive finance companies be concerned?AgendaGlobal Autos Market Update 2026Global light vehicle sales to grow under 2%in 2026Slowdown in sales growth expected in US,ChinaTotal number of global light vehicles exclu

4、des China exports,in line with Global Data new definition.Sources:Global Data,European Automobile Manufacturers Association(ACEA),China Association of Automobile Manufacturers(CAAM),Moodys RatingsAffordability and modest uptick in unemployment rate to hold back US salesSales in Western Europe pickin

5、g up after flattish 2025China sales expectations tempered by:Possible moderation in government stimulus measuresEffect of global trade tensions on exportsIn thousand units202320242025E2026EUS 15,552 15,816 16,075 16,2001.7%1.6%0.8%Western Europe 13,279 13,380 13,370 13,560 0.8%-0.1%1.4%China 25,184

6、25,577 26,856 27,393 1.6%5.0%2.0%China exports 4,910 5,859 6,328 6,581 19.3%8.0%4.0%China total 30,094 31,436 33,184 33,974 4.5%5.6%2.4%Global Light Vehicle Sales 86,850 88,795 90,650 92,176 2.2%2.1%1.7%Global Autos Market Update 2026Electrification drives local brands share gains in ChinaSource:Chi