邓白氏（Dun & Bradstreet）：2025年第四季度全球经济展望报告（英文版）（20页）.pdf

1、 Commercial in Confidence Quarterly Global Economic Outlook Q4 2025 Dealing with Uncertainty:Navigating a Nascent Global Transition “The global economy is entering a transitional phase marked by resilience amid persistent uncertainty.While inflation dynamics and policy divergence continue to shape t

2、he outlook,a notable shift is happening,with abrupt trade shocks and unpredictable tariff escalation gradually and subtly giving way to a more managed rules-based environment.Negotiation,recalibration,and clearer policy signals are beginning to replace disruption as the dominant themes creating cond

3、itions that will progressively make for more confident long-term planning.For businesses,this shift demands a strategic pivot.With trade frameworks,supply chains,and policy trajectories becoming better understood,firms should move beyond short-term contingency planning and focus on building durable

4、competitiveness.That means investing in supply chain resilience,diversifying market exposure,deepening engagement in jurisdictions with stable regulatory and trade regimes,and embedding scenario planning into decision-making.”Dr.Arun Singh,Global Chief Economist,Dun&Bradstreet.Regional Growth Trends

5、:Shifting Growth Dynamics Across Key Regions Sources:Haver Analytics,Dun&Bradstreet.3.83.53.81.82.72.72.41.71.11.73.83.52.52.82.51.71.91.41.31.23.83.72.93.42.61.91.90.61.41.8Real GDP Growth(%)202420252026 Commercial in Confidence Global Overview Nascent Transition:Living with Uncertainty The global

6、economy is tentatively entering a transitional phase marked by resilience amid uncertainty.Growth remains broadly positive but uneven across regions,reflecting shifting dynamics in consumer demand,trade policy,and monetary and fiscal conditions.In advanced economies,household consumption and service