1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:17/12/2025 12:03:50 GMTDistributed on:17/12/2025 12:03:50 GMT17 December 20252026 BioPharma Outlook-Macro/Sector ViewAI Giveth and Taketh Generalists.The BioPharma sector seems to have regained its defensive characteristics now that drug pricing and tar

2、iff overhangs are cleared.Healthcare equity positioning is now back to its historic median as generalists seem to be looking towards BioPharma names amid AI/tech uncertainty.Growth&Duration to remain winners.We see durable,high growth stories like LLY being favored by HC specialists&generalists seek

3、ing exposure.ABBV also meets the growth and duration criteria,but we think HC specialists are questioning whether Skyrizis exposed to share erosion as JNJs Tremfya gains steam.As for GILD,we think the HIV franchise is durable but without Yeztugos launch taking off,GILDs growth magnitude appears limi

4、ted.also,make or break,redemption story for BMY.2026 is a crucial year for BMYs Ph3 ADEPT-2/-4&LIBREXIA-AF readouts which are paramount to EPS trough formation.We appreciate BMYs near-term is saddled with patent cliffs/loss of exclusivity(LoE),but with BMY trading at$54/sh(9x FY26 EPS)into the ADEPT

5、 and LIBREXIA-AF readouts,we think HC specialists see a favorable risk/reward.M&A-Quantity over Mega Deals.We think transactions up to the$10-$15B range will remain the“sweet spot”for US BioPharma deal flow in FY26.We expect BMY and MRK to be active on the M&A front as they get another year closer t

6、o their respective PD-1s heading into the FY29.Were also expecting LLY to leverage its GLP1/Diabesity cash flows to further diversify its R&D capabilities.Gap between US and China biotech capabilities appear to be narrowing.We envision Chinas biotech scene leveraging its large patient pools,regulato