大华银行：2026年第一季度全球展望报告：东盟经济体开局稳健（英文版）（67页）.pdf

1、ASEAN economies enter 2026 on a firm footingQuarterly Global Outlook 1Q 2026CONTENT0416312335651556-6313-14Executive SummaryASEAN FocusRates StrategyFX StrategyCommodities StrategyGroup Research TeamKey EventsTechnicalsForecastASEAN economies enter 2026 on a firm footingConstructive trade and invest

2、ment prospects into 2035The gradual grind lower in rates continues into 2026 USD fell hard in 2025.Will the USD fall further in 2026?Still“Gonna Be,Gonna Be Golden!”in 20261Q 2026FX&CommoditiesReal GDP Growth TrajectoryFX,Interest Rate&CommoditiesNew ZealandUnited StatesUnited KingdomOutlook

3、 by EconomiesClick on the economy to view insightEurozoneAustraliaJapanChinaVietnamSouth KoreaHong KongTaiwanPhilippinesSingaporeIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaThailandExplore more research insights atReach out to us atInformation as of 05 December .sg/researchGlobalEcoMktResearchUOBUOB Global Economics&

4、Markets ResearchQuarterly Global Outlook 1Q 20264“Persistence Propels Potentials to Perfection”-Dr Kao Kim Hourn,Secretary-General ASEANASEAN economies enter 2026 on a firm footingEXECUTIVE SUMMARYASEAN economies started 2025 on a highly uncertain note.President Trump had just commenced his second t

5、erm and made clear his overwhelming desire to rewire global trade.On 2 April,President Trump formally announced reciprocal tariffs against almost every other trading nation with the United States.There was an immense sense of uncertainty,and many investors were convinced that after the front-loading

6、 of exports to the United States taper off by the end of the second quarter,most ASEAN economies would encounter a sharp manufacturing and export sector slowdown.Chinas economy was expected to slow down sharply as it bore the brunt of the extremely high reciprocal tariffs and sectoral tariffs impose