太阳能经济学新趋势：应对低价、成本上涨及向混合思维的转变.pdf

1、New Solar Economics:Navigating Low Prices,Rising Costs&the Shift to Hybrid ThinkingKsenia DrayGlobal Solar LeadSolar as main technology Yet Growth is slowing2Solar takes over as Europes main technology June 2025:the biggest electricity source in the EU(22,1%generation)Strong Solar Penetration across

2、 all European MarketsSolar Growth 2025:Solar Growth 2025:Medium Scenario=contracting to-1,4%High Scenario:only+1,1%growthLow Scenario:growth falls to-2,3%Low Wholesale Electricity prices and Cannibalisation3Low wholesale electricity prices Price cannibalisationGrid Saturation=CurtailmentHalt of inse

3、nsitive schemesLow Solar Capture rates across Europe4Germany June 2025:solar represents 30%of monthly electricity generation for capture rates of 31%PV Capex in 2025:Where the real Levers are 5Click the iconto add pictureRising Module Costs:Which Optimizations?Efficiency-based module optimization yi

4、eld,PRNew Technologies:Back Contact,Topcon high efficiencyBetter degradation Depends on climate/site conditionsLayout optimisation rather component onlyModule choice alone cannot rescue project economics6BOS&Soft costs:further optimisation?Civil works:foundation and drainage,excavationStructure opti

5、misation:capex and Yield improvementElectrical Design and Inverter sizing:DC/AC ratio,string vs.centralGrid connection strategy Procurement Strategy Hybridisation:BOS cost leverHybridisation:BOS cost lever7Click the iconto add pictureHybridisation:A tool to rebuild Project EconomicsStabilise Revenue

6、s by capturing high price windowsEnergy arbitrageAccess to grid services/ancillary markets Uplift in IRROptimise Capex8Solar PV versus Hybrid(fix tilt)9Hybrid projects remain complexRevenue complexity:merchant revenue is volatileRegulatory