三菱日联银行（MUFG）：2025年第四季度全球经济展望报告（英文版）（19页）.pdf

1、A member of MUFG,a global financial groupDecember 5,2025(Original Japanese version released November 28,2025)Global Economic OutlookQ4 2025Global summary2The key theme remains one of broad resilience with the outlook brightening somewhat since our previous update.Recent data have suggested that the

2、global economy continues to weather tariff-related uncertainty in reasonable shape.We have revised up our global growth projection for 2025 by 0.3pp accordingly,with notable upgrades to the national figures for the US and Japan.Looking ahead,growth momentum is set to moderate slightly in 2026 but re

3、main relatively firm with growth rates generally hovering close to potential.In the US,we see growth at 2.0%both this year and next,supported by resilient consumption and AI-driven investment,even as hiring slows.Japan is also likely to experience a steadier recovery,aided by fiscal stimulus and imp

4、roving real wages.In China,headwinds from weak household sentiment and real estate concerns continue to linger,but policy support and strategic investment in sectors such as EVs and semiconductors are set to provide support.In Europe,we expect broadly steady growth in both the euro area and UK.Globa

5、l inflation is tracking slightly lower in aggregate after some softer figures in Asia,but US price pressures remain sticky,with CPI likely to remain above 2.5%next year and core PCE near 3%well into 2026.In Japan,the disinflation process is set to continue,helped by base effects and policy measures.

6、Euro area inflation is set to drift below target in 2026 while,after an extended uptick this year,UK inflation is likely to fade relatively quickly towards target from Q2 2026.Against that backdrop,the monetary policy outlook has shifted,but only slightly.After cutting in December,we see just one mo