WisdomTree：2026年美国经济与市场展望报告：拉开帷幕（中译版）（12页）.pdf

1、2026 Economic&Market OutlookRaising the CurtainDecember 2025 2026 Economic&Market Outlook|Raising the Curtain2For Financial Professional Use OnlyAuthorsKevin FlanaganHead of Fixed Income StrategyRick HarperChief Investment Officer,Fixed Income and Model PortfoliosSamuel Rines Macro Strategist,Model

2、PortfoliosJeremy Schwartz,CFA Global Chief Investment OfficerJeff Weniger,CFA Head of Equity Strategy2026 Economic&Market Outlook|Raising the Curtain3For Financial Professional Use OnlyKey Takeaways+Despite mixed labor market data,the underlying fundamentals of the U.S.economy remain resilient,wardi

3、ng off recession fears.+The Fed is a“house divided,”with“risk management”rate cuts now turning to a more deliberate,data-driven approach.+The Treasury 10-Year yield is expected to remain at an elevated,“normal”level with heightened headline and data dependency producing continued volatility.+We beli

4、eve the bond portfolio decision-making process could benefit from taking an active-passive barbell approach from a solution standpoint.+We remain constructive on global equities,maintaining an emphasis on the Quality and Value factors,along with U.S.small caps.The Macro BackdropA No Hire,No Fire Eco

5、nomyDuring the summer months,there was no question that the labor markets had experienced a visible cooling in activity.Interestingly,while certainly far from complete,post-government shutdown data is highlighting more of a somewhat mixed employment setting and has given rise to an economy that is e

6、xperiencing a“no hire,no fire”aspect.Looking ahead,we continue to see the leading economic indicator,weekly jobless claims,residing at levels that are about 100,000 below where they were historically prior to a looming recession.In fact,a recent reading for claims placed the figure at a three-year l