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经合组织:2025全球经济展望报告:增长仍具韧性 但脆弱性加剧(英文版)(285页).pdf

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1、OECD Economic OutlookResilient Growth but with Increasing FragilitiesDecember 2025Volume 2025/2,No.118versionlaunchOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK118DECEMBER 2025PRELIMINARY VERSIONversionlaunchThis work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.The opinions expressed andargum

2、ents employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD.This document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and t

3、o the name of any territory,city or area.The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities.The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights,East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank und

4、er the terms of international law.Note by the Republic of TrkiyeThe information in this document with reference to“Cyprus”relates to the southern part of the Island.There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island.Trkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofN

5、orthern Cyprus(TRNC).Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations,Trkiyeshall preserve its position concerning the“Cyprus issue”.Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all memb

6、ers of the United Nations with the exception of Trkiye.Theinformation in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.Please cite this publication as:OECD(2025),OECD Economic Outlook,Volume 2025 Issue 2:Resilient Growth but with Increasing

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根据《OECD经济展望》2025年12月版,以下是全文关键点: 1. 全球经济今年表现出色,但存在潜在脆弱性。预计2025年全球GDP增长3.3%,2026年放缓至2.9%,2027年回升至3.1%。 2. 全球贸易增长放缓,预计2026年全球贸易增长2.7%,2027年回升至2.9%。 3. 消费者价格通胀预计将在2027年中回归目标水平。 4. 技术投资和贸易增长强劲,尤其是人工智能相关投资。 5. 劳动力市场紧张,但出现放松迹象,失业率有所上升。 6. 预计政策利率将进一步降低,但需警惕通胀风险。 7. 需要解决财政脆弱性,并实施结构性改革以增强增长潜力。
** 贸易壁垒影响几何? ** 全球经济增长韧性如何,贸易壁垒又将带来哪些挑战? ** AI投资如何影响全球贸易?
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