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道富环球:2026年全球市场展望报告:前瞻布局 聚焦核心(中译版)(21页).pdf

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1、GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK 2026:Forward with focus Global Market Outlook 2026:Forward with focus 2Contents3Forward with focus A letter from Lori Heinel,CFA,Global Chief Investment Officer,State Street Investment Management.4Macroeconomic outlook Growth amid uncertaintyGlobal economic growth continues,sup

2、ported by policy shifts,AI investment,and fiscal stimulus.But uncertainty remains amid lingering trade and geopolitical risks.8Equity outlookAI optimism trumps policy concernsAI optimism underpins global equities in 2026,but policy risks,volatility,and rich valuations call for a selective investment

3、 approach.12Fixed Income outlook The search for income and opportunityOur fixed income outlook reflects a preference for sovereigns over credit,while potential opportunities lie in EM debt and other segments.17Alternatives outlookIncome,diversification,andgrowthThe attraction of alternative exposure

4、s has grown as traditional portfolios face rich equity valuations,shifting correlations,and policy uncertainty in 2026.Global Market Outlook 2026:Forward with focus 3As we move into 2026 after another year of significant developments and surprises,we do so with a sense of cautious optimism.The resil

5、ience of markets has been tested,but the strength of the global economy has shone through.Although the narrative around tariffs continues to unfold and the shock of“Liberation Day”is behind us,the direction of travel on negotiations is clear and should contain more upside than downside surprises.Wit

6、h an inflation trajectory trending lower,US policy rates likely to fall as the Fed takes stock of a softening labor market,and policy levers turning stimulative,we have a supportive environment for riskassets.Forward with focusAlthough equity markets have enjoyed a healthy uplift in 2025,strong earn

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根据《2026年全球市场展望》报告,以下为全文关键点: 1. 全球经济增长持续,但存在不确定性,政策转变、AI投资和财政刺激支持增长。 2. 2026年全球股市乐观,但政策风险、波动性和高估值要求选择性投资。 3. 固定收益市场偏好主权债务,新兴市场债务和其它领域存在机会。 4. 可选投资领域吸引投资者,包括收入、多元化和增长。 5. 美国股市受AI投资推动,但需关注估值风险。 6. 欧洲股市在基础设施投资方面迎头赶上,但AI投资规模仍落后于美国。 7. 日本股市受新首相政策推动,预计2026年增长约10%。 8. 新兴市场受AI驱动增长、宽松流动性和美元走弱支撑。 9. 美国国债市场仍是全球利率市场关键,预计美联储将继续降息。 10. 欧洲和亚洲政府债券面临财政和货币政策挑战。 11. 投资级信用债和高收益债市场机会有限,但抵押贷款、结构化信贷和私募信贷更具吸引力。 12. 新兴市场债务前景积极,偏好本地货币债券。 13. 可选投资领域提供可持续收入、多元化和增长机会,包括私募信贷、实物资产、基础设施、私募股权和精选对冲基金策略。
"2026年AI如何影响股市?" "固定收益市场2026年机会何在?" "多元化投资,2026年如何布局?"
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