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世界贸易组织(WTO):2025全球贸易展望与统计报告(10月刊)(中译版)(38页).pdf

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1、Global Trade Outlookand StatisticsUpdate:October 2025GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK AND STATISTICS-UPDATE:OCTOBER 2025IIAbout the WTOThe World Trade Organization is the international body dealing with the global rules of trade between WTO members.Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly,pre

2、dictably and freely as possible,with a level playing field for all its members.DisclaimerThis publication has been prepared under the WTO Secretariats own responsibility.It does not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of WTO members and is without prejudice to their rights and obligations

3、under the WTO agreements.The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein are not intended to provide any authoritative or legal interpretation of the provisions of the WTO agreements and shall in no way be read or understood to have any legal implications whatsoever.The terms and illustrations

4、used in this publication do not constitute or imply an expression of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status or boundaries of any territory.AcknowledgementsThis report was prepared by the Economic Research and Statistics Division under the supervision of Deputy Director-General Johanna

5、Hill.Lead contributors were Coleman Nee,Barbara DAndrea Adrian,Marc Auboin and Eddy Bekkers.Additional contributions through statistical production,modelling or drafting were provided by Shradha Bhatia,Lori Chang,Fabio Della Coletta,Florian Eberth,Lee Humphreys,Hryhorii Kalachyhin,Ksenia Koloskova,Y

6、ann Marcus,Theo Mbise,Donal Smith,Ying Yan and Toby Bushley.The Information and External Relations Division provided valuable support on the production of the report.1ContentsExecutive summary 2Outlook for world trade in 2025 and 2026 3Merchandise trade 4Commercial services 5Macroeconomic conditions

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根据《全球贸易展望与统计》2025年10月版,以下是全文关键点: 1. 2025年全球商品贸易量增长预计为2.4%,高于之前的0.9%预测;2026年增长预计为0.5%,低于之前的1.8%预测。 2. 服务贸易出口量预计2025年增长4.6%,2026年增长4.4%。 3. 2025年上半年全球商品贸易量同比增长4.9%,主要受北美提前进口、宏观经济条件改善和人工智能相关商品需求激增推动。 4. 2025年美国商品贸易量预计对全球商品贸易增长贡献为负,亚洲贡献最大。 5. 2025年全球商品贸易额同比增长6%,服务贸易增长放缓至5%。 6. 人工智能相关商品成为2025年贸易增长的主要动力,占全球商品贸易增长近一半。
增长还是放缓?" 贸易增长新引擎?" 不确定性下的未来?"
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