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1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ Listen

2、 to our insightsFind out moreHSBCGlobal InvestmentResearchPodcasts SCFI up 2.1%w-o-w;more blank sailings expected to be announced but unable to resist spot rates rollover in 2H De minimis ban to reduce air cargo demand and hurt rates,but prompt modal shift from air to ocean+overseas warehousing Buy

3、Maersk,CSET-H/A;Hold SITC,DHL;Reduce CSH-H/A,EVG,HLAG,OOIL,PBS,CX More blank sailings to be announced:The SCFI was up 2.1%w-o-w,with rates+10-17%in the US but-11%in Europe,likely on successful implementation of GRIs of USD1k-3k/FEU on Transpacific(TP)due on 1 September,following TP rates that have n

4、early reached pre-Red Sea level.Sea Intelligence reported that blank sailings announced for the 2025 Chinese Golden Week are significantly lower than historical levels,especially in TP routes.This suggests a wave of last-minute capacity reduction is likely in coming weeks,which would be critical for

5、 rates stability amid weakening demand(Container News,27 August).but cannot resist 2H softness:We think tariff-driven cost escalation would suppress consumer demand while front-loadings from 2Q to early 3Q could retard retailer restocking cycles in 2H.Indeed,Walmart in its 2Q25 results briefing on 2

6、1 August noted that it continued to see costs increase each week and expects this to continue into 3Q and 4Q of FY26(ending January 2026),and its US inventory rose 2.2%y-o-y.In this context,we argue that carriers would face margin compression as they balance capacity cuts against softening demand in