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1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Equity Research Report Listen to our

2、 insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research Podcasts Low visibility on US exports in 2H25e due to uncertain tariffs after the 90-day pause Strong growth momentum of self-owned brands in the domestic market to continue in 2025e Downgrade Petpal to Hold(from Buy)and lower target price;maintain Hold on

3、China Pet Foods(CPF)and raise target price What went wrong?In our last pet food industry report,we stated that earnings will grow rapidly amid international trade uncertainty,while we preferred Petpal due to more capacity being available for new orders.However,CPFs share price has outperformed Petpa

4、ls share price since the reciprocal tariff was announced.We underestimate the US tariff impact,which weighed on Petpals earnings,given 60%-plus of revenue comes from US exports.CPFs low exposure to US exports(c20%)and US local factories(c20%of its revenue)make its earnings more resilient.CPF reporte

5、d that 1Q25 net profit grew 62%y-o-y,while Petpal reported that 1Q25 net profit fell 47%y-o-y.1Q25 results led to further divergence of the share price performance:CPFs share price increased c32%since its 1Q25 results release(CSI 300 up 3%over the same period),while Petpals share price increased c13

6、%since its 1Q25 results release(CSI 300 up 4%over the same period).We believe the re-rating of US capacity is fully priced in for CPF.If the Canadian or American factories come online earlier than we expect or there are a significant number of new products introduced in the domestic market,we may re