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兰德公司:2025基于系统动力学的医师人力供需建模研究报告:模型结构与假设(中译版)(39页).pdf

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1、ANDRADA TOMOAIA-COTISEL,SAMUEL D.ALLEN,SIN CAVE,PETER MENDEL,WARREN W.FARR,DANIEL E.GORDON,RODERICK MACDONALD,CHRISTOPHER D.NELSON,MONIQUE MARTINEAUModeling Physician Workforce Supply,Demand,and Need Using System DynamicsModel Structure and AssumptionsThis publication has completed RANDs research qu

2、ality-assurance process but was not professionally copyedited.Research ReportFor more information on this publication,visit www.rand.org/t/RRA2616-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and m

3、ore secure,healthier and more prosperous.RAND is nonprofit,nonpartisan,and committed to the public interest.To learn more about RAND,visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality

4、and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior.To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous,objective,and nonpartisan,we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process;avoid both the appearance and r

5、eality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training,project screening,and a policy of mandatory disclosure;and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations,disclosure of the source o

6、f funding of published research,and policies to ensure intellectual independence.For more information,visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation,Santa Monica,Calif.2025

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本文主要介绍了RAND-AAMC模型,该模型使用系统动力学方法模拟美国医疗工作者供应、需求和需求。该模型包含五个模块:供应、需求、临床需求、感知需求和利用。模型从2002年开始模拟,到2052年,但可以修改以预测任何指定时间。模型可以分析系统整体,考虑利益相关者、时间框架等因素,并探索潜在的政策杠杆。模型包含720个方程式,30个库存,64个流量和135个常数。模型通过与历史数据的比较来验证其准确性。模型目前不包括某些人口和财务因素,如美国人口的地域分布或临床医生的种族和地理分布。模型目前专注于医生、护士从业者和医师助理,不包括其他可能提供医生等效服务的临床医生群体。
系统动力学模型如何模拟医生劳动力供需? 模型如何区分临床需求、感知需求和利用? 模型如何预测未来医生劳动力趋势?
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