欧晰析咨询：2024年全球旅游业展望报告：风浪渐息？（中译版）（37页）.pdf

1、Spring 2024Calmer Waters Ahead?Global Travel Outlook2|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023 The travel industry has suffered a turbulent recovery path post-Covid,facing into high-cost inflation,labour shortages,conflicts in the Ukraine and the Middle East,low consumer confidence and limited growth in real

2、disposable incomes however,consumer demand for leisure experiences remains strong(with consumers prioritising spend on travel including willingness to spend COVID savings on travel);alongside this,business travel is returning faster than many expected As a result,and in spite of the challenging macr

3、o outlook,we cautiously expect calmer waters ahead for the global travel industry with travel volumes forecast to grow at 4-6%pa1over the next 5 years However,pressures on management teams remain high with multiple challenges including ensuring fit for purpose commercial,marketing,distribution and l

4、oyalty strategies,refining product propositions to meet evolving consumer needs,and ensuring a lean operating model(leveraging strong tech/digital capabilities,and attractive talent propositions)For investors there are a range of sector opportunities in the coming year,as we expect a backlog of high

5、-quality,investible assets to come to market after the hiatus of the last few yearsSource:OC&C analysisSummary1.Consensus CAGR 2023-28 for total volume of tripsCalmer Waters Ahead-Global Travel Outlook-March 20243|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023In aggregate,global travel has almost recovered to 2019

6、levels however in certain regions it remains at 75-90%100978675106921019610511585100861091031069193AfricaAsiaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeCentral&South AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaSouthwest PacificWorld100(Nov-23=2019 levels)Revenue Passenger Kilometres by Carrier Registered Region1Indexed 100=201