硅谷银行：2024年第四季度经济报告：影响全球市场与商业健康的经济和市场因素（中译版）（29页）.pdf

1、4th Quarter 2024SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business healthOverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Monetary PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and PerformanceSeptembers widely anticipated Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)

2、meeting concluded with a 50-basis point(bps)rate cut and an updated,more“dovish”outlook for the path of future rate cuts.The FOMC shifted its characterization of both the labor market(“job gains have slowed”)and inflation(“made further progress”),overall suggesting a more balanced approach to the Fe

3、deral Reserves dual mandate compared to its prior focus on price stability.The FOMCs“dot plot”of future rate expectations was revised to reflect further rate cuts through both the remainder of this year and 2025.Consumers have slowed down their spending in the current rate and inflation environment.

4、More Americans are refinancing their homes due to falling mortgage rates.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#1024-0139TD-0930253Narrower interest rate differentials will weigh on the USD.The interest rate advantage of the USD vs.developed economy currencies is projected to narrow or disappear altogether,and

5、is expected to put downward pressure on the USD.The prospect of lower rates in 2024 boosts fixed income performance.The shift in market expectations for interest rates helped government bonds perform strongly.Credit performance also benefitted,with both investment-grade(IG)and high-yield(HY)credit s

6、preads ending Q3 2024 marginally tighter.GDP continues to point to the strength of the economy.Q2 2024 gross domestic product(GDP)was reported at 3.0%,well above the market consensus of 2.0%,indicating the health of the U.Ss overall economy.The FOMC set forth a more aggressive path of policy easing