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ITIF:2023汉密尔顿指数:中国主导全球战略产业(中译版)(131页).pdf

上传人: Kell****reet 编号:149026 2023-12-19 131页 1.12MB

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1、 itif.org The Hamilton Index,2023:China Is Running Away With Strategic Industries ROBERT D.ATKINSON AND IAN TUFTS|DECEMBER 2023 China now dominates the strategically important industries in ITIFs Hamilton Index,producing more than any other nation in absolute terms and more than all but a few others

2、 in relative terms.Its gains are coming at the expense of the United States and other G7 and OECD economies,and time is running short for policymakers to mount an industrial comeback.KEY TAKEAWAYS As of 2020,China was the leading producer in seven of the ten strategically important industries in ITI

3、Fs Hamilton Index.Overall,China was producing more than any other nationand more than all other nations outside of the top 10 combined.Hamilton Index industries accounted for approximately the same share of the global economy in 2020(11.8 percent)as in 1995(11.9 percent),underscoring how the race fo

4、r global advantage in these industries is a zero-sum competition.Chinas gains have come at the expense of the United States and other G7 and OECD economies.From 1995 to 2020,China also captured more than 80 percent of non-OECD countries gains.China is 70 percent more specialized than America in adva

5、nced industries.To match Chinas specialization,U.S.output would have to expand by$1.5 trillion(69 percent),which would require doubling output from all Hamilton industries except IT services.Time is running short to turn around U.S.advanced industry fortunes.The 2020s are likely to be the decisive d

6、ecade because once China captures sufficient global market share,U.S.and allied nations production risks being permanently weakened.Congress should make closing this massive advanced-industry output gap its overarching economic policy goal,including through tax,trade,and other elements of a comprehe

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本文主要讨论了2023年汉密尔顿指数中中国在战略性重要产业中的领先地位。主要观点如下: 1. 2020年,中国在全球10个战略性重要产业中的7个产业中领先,总体上生产量超过任何其他国家,并且比除少数几个国家外的其他国家都多。 2. 汉密尔顿指数产业在2020年占全球经济的11.8%,与1995年持平,这突显了这些产业在全球优势竞争中的零和性质。 3. 中国的增长是以美国和G7及OECD经济体的损失为代价的。从1995年到2020年,中国也获得了非OECD国家增长的大部分。 4. 中国在先进产业方面的专业化程度比美国高出70%。为了与中国的专业化程度相匹配,美国的产量需要增加1.5万亿美元(69%),这将需要将除IT服务外的所有汉密尔顿产业的生产翻倍。 5. 扭转美国先进产业命运的时间已经不多。2020年代可能是决定性的十年,因为一旦中国获得足够的全球市场份额,美国和盟国的生产可能会永久受损。 6. 美国的汉密尔顿指数产业相对于GDP的份额低于全球平均水平,这意味着这些产业在美国经济中的份额比全球平均水平小。
中国在哪些战略行业中领先? 美国在先进产业中的表现如何? 如何提高一个国家在先进产业中的专业化水平?
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