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经合组织&联合国粮农组织:2026-2035年农业展望报告(英文版)(166页).pdf

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1、OECDFAO Agricultural Outlook 20262035OECDFAO Agricultural Outlook 20262035This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD and the Director-General of FAO.The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Mem

2、bercountries of the OECD,or of the Members of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.This document,as well as any designation employed and data and map included herein,do not imply the expression ofany opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO or the OECD,and are without prejudice t

3、o the legal or constitutional status ofor sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of anyterritory,city or area.Dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be fullagreement.The mention of spec

4、ific companies or products of manufacturers,whether or not these have been patented,does notimply that these have been endorsed or recommended by OECD or FAO in preference to others of a similar nature thatare not mentioned.Please cite this publication as:OECD/FAO(2026),OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

5、 2026-2035,Paris and Rome,https:/doi.org/10.1787/47874669-en.ISBN 978-92-64-98094-5(print)ISBN 978-92-64-85071-2(PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-66852-2(HTML)OECD-FAO Agricultural OutlookISSN 1563-0447(print)ISSN 1999-1142(online)FAOISBN 978-92-5-140769-1(print and PDF)Photo credits:Cover design by OECD and FAO.

6、Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at:https:/www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.OECD/FAO 2026 Attribution 3.0 IGO(CC BY 3.0 IGO)This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO licence.By using this work,you accept to be bound by the terms of thi

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1. **核心结论**:OECD-FAO《农业展望2026-2035》预测,全球农业劳动力生产率将增长9%(平均达3800美元/工人),但低收入国家收入增长有限(仅从930美元增至1100美元)。 2. **价格趋势**:实际国际农产品价格将保持稳定或低于当前水平,但存在25%概率收入下降12%以上(低收入国家或超20%)。 3. **生产与排放**:生产增长主要依赖生产力提升,但作物面积和牲畜数量扩张将导致直接温室气体排放增加6.5%(畜牧业占77%)。 4. **消费变化**:中低收入国家饮食结构多元化,东南亚将贡献39%的全球消费增长;高收入国家持续过度消费。 5. **贸易与风险**:多边合作对粮食安全至关重要,但低收入国家受基础设施不足制约;中东冲突推高能源和化肥成本,加剧低收入国家粮食安全风险。
农业收入如何变化? 粮食价格会涨吗? 气候影响农业吗?
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