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Exponential View:2026人工智能经济现状报告(中译版)(66页).pdf

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1、The State of the AI EconomyJune 25,2026 Azeem Azhar,William Gildea,Hannah Petrovic,PhD,Nathan Warren&Marija Gavrilov1Exponential Viewwww.exponentialview.coIndependently produced by Exponential View.Built from public disclosures and Exponential Views own models;all conclusions are our own.Epiiplus1 L

2、td 2026There is a visibility problem in the AI economy.Until now,it has been impossible to deconstruct real customer demand.The supply side of the AI economy is well-documented.Most semiconductor companies and hyperscalers are public and disclose their activities in some detail.Sell-side analysts ha

3、ve done a great job decomposing their performance.The demand side,what customers are actually paying for and if the revenues are real,has been obscure.The largest labs are private,and even public companies bury AI revenue inside segment totals.Without understanding genuine demand,it is impossible to

4、 judge the health of the AI economy that underpins$22.7 trillion of stock market valuation and has driven US GDP growth in the past six quarters.We hope that this report serves as a reference source on the current state of play,free of hype and fear,while helping us all have a more informed conversa

5、tion about the gravitational pull AI is exerting on the economy and the world at large.Special thanks to those who kindly reviewed an early draft of this presentation and gave us feedback:Alex Imas,Shanu Mathew,Patrick Rutherford,Jaime Sevilla and Amy Sutter.Azeem and the Exponential View team2Why w

6、eve done thisWe flag,investigate and maintain our datasets using analyst research,augmented by a proprietary system that scans,crawls and synthesizes insights.Every revenue line traced to primary filings,audited accounts,transcripts and credible reporting;plus cloud-attribution where a private firms

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1. **需求真实且高速增长**:AI经济年化收入达1750亿美元(去重后),增速是此前IT浪潮的3倍,每新增10亿美元收入所需时间从180天缩短至不足2天。 2. **经济占比仍小**:AI收入仅占美国GDP的0.42%,远低于IT行业的9.4%,但增速显著(较2024年Q1增长10倍)。 3. **资本开支激增**:超大规模云厂商承诺至2026年累计投入2万亿美元CapEx,其中AI相关部分达5350亿美元,当前收入已覆盖季度折旧(覆盖率19%-32%)。 4. **Token经济弹性**:全球月Token处理量超30千万亿,年增14倍,价格弹性约1.2-1.8(降价10%带动用量12%-18%增长)。 5. **价值分层转移**:收入集中于芯片(82%)和托管层(87%),但应用层和模型层份额正提升(2024Q1至2026Q1,应用层收入增长2.95倍)。
**AI经济真实吗?** **AI需求有多强?** **AI投资回报几何?**
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