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英国政府:2025年英国发电成本报告(英文版)(43页).pdf

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1、 Department for Energy Security and Net Zero:first published January 2026 Electricity Generation Costs 2025Electricity Generation Costs 2025 2 Crown copyright 2026 This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated.To view this licence,visi

2、t nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3.Where we have identified any third-party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us at:generationcostsenergysecurity.gov.uk

3、 Electricity Generation Costs 2025 3 Contents Acronym glossary.5 Introduction.7 Updates in this report.7 Scope of the report.8 Report structure.8 Uncertainty.9 Section 1:Overview.10 Presentation of costs.10 Generation cost components.10 Technology maturity.11 Sensitivity of generation costs.12 Curre

4、nt cost environment.12 Section 2:Generation costs:how the department uses generation costs.13 Power sector modelling.13 Renewable auction administrative strike prices(ASPs).13 Section 3:Generation costs:Levelised Cost of Electricity.15 Definition.15 Purpose.15 Limitations.15 How to estimate.16 Secti

5、on 4:Generation costs:updates since the previous report.18 Cross-cutting assumptions.18 Hurdle Rates.18 Turbine trajectories for wind generation technologies.19 Load factor methodology for renewable wind technologies.19 Fossil fuel price assumptions.20 Hydrogen fuel and production costs assumptions.

6、20 Carbon price assumptions.21 Renewable technologies.21 Large-scale solar photovoltaic(PV).21 Onshore wind.22 Fixed offshore wind(including peer review).22 Geothermal.23 Electricity Generation Costs 2025 4 Non-renewable technologies.24 Unabated gas.24 Hydrogen to power.25 Gas CCUS Technologies.27 N

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1. **报告更新**:2025年发电成本报告更新了关键假设,包括30种技术的门槛收益率、陆上/海上风电、光伏、地热、无减排天然气及氢能发电的成本与技术参数,并调整了风电负载因子计算方法。 2. **核心成本数据**: - 陆上风电(2030年):LCOE约£XX/MWh,负载因子37%; - 海上风电(2030年):LCOE约£XX/MWh,负载因子49%; - 无减排天然气(2030年,93%负载因子):LCOE£109/MWh(2024年价格,含碳成本)。 3. **关键变化**: - 门槛收益率普遍上升1-2个百分点; - 碳价假设调整,长期不再收敛至碳社会成本,影响天然气LCOE; - 地热发电因热收入降低LCOE,但对钻井成本敏感度高。 4. **局限性**:LCOE未涵盖系统级成本(如电网平衡、位置影响),需结合全系统模型分析。
**发电成本趋势?** **技术更新影响?** **碳价如何变化?**
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