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Ti：2026年 Q2海运运价追踪报告（中译版）（17页）.pdf

上传人： 小*** 编号：1271986 2026-06-29 17页 281.38KB

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1、Ocean Freight Rate Tracker Q2 2026Ocean Freight Rate Tracker Q2 20262Q2 2026 has crystallized a familiar picture of global trade:volatility remains the defining constant.Across major lanes,structural oversupply,fragile demand,and policy-driven uncertainty continue to exert pressure in different ways

2、.Temporary rate increases are tied more to geopolitical events and carrier intervention than durable recovery,leaving the industry caught between a flood of new capacity and glimmers of economic improvement.Global merchandise trade growth remains weak,with 2026 growth projections forecast at 1.9%.US

3、 consumer confidence fell to record lows in April,and the anticipated pre-Chinese New Year surge failed to materialise as importers held off on restocking.As reported by Maersk,global container demand is estimated to have expanded between 3%and 5%year-on-year in Q1 2026,though momentum has softened

4、entering Q2 as geopolitical disruptions weigh on trade flows.The Transpacific shows persistent weakness,with North America container imports remaining slightly negative year-on-year in Q1,though volatility continues as policy sensitivities drive uneven demand patterns.Asia-Europe flows proved more r

5、esilient in Q1 with stronger import growth,yet underlying European consumption remains subdued as the region continues economic adjustments.Transatlantic container trade in Q1 2026 showed stability following a Greenland agreement at Davos that averted threatened US tariffs,with rates remaining at lo

6、w levels and capacity widely available despite earlier threats of punitive US tariffs on European countries.However,operational bottlenecks at key European ports such as Rotterdam and Antwerp caused longer container dwell times and increased demurrage risk.The lane remains sensitive to policy uncert

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1. **市场波动持续**：2026年Q2全球海运贸易波动性加剧，结构性运力过剩、需求疲软及政策不确定性持续施压。 2. **核心数据**： - 全球集装箱需求Q1同比增3%-5%，但Q2 momentum转弱； - 集装箱船订单量达1300万TEU（2026年交付170万TEU），运力增长（3.2%）显著高于贸易增长（2.3%）； - Q2全球海运运力1248万TEU，同比增3.05%。 3. **地缘冲突影响**：伊朗冲突导致波斯湾航线关闭，燃料价格飙升37.7%（Q2同比），五大航司紧急加收燃油附加费。 4. **区域分化**： - 亚欧航线韧性较强，但红海绕航增加10-14天航程； - 跨太平洋航线受政策敏感度影响需求波动； - 跨大西洋航线因关税威胁缓解暂稳，但欧洲港口拥堵加剧滞港费风险。 5. **未来展望**：运力过剩将持续压制运价，但地缘冲突、燃料成本及港口瓶颈或短期推高波动。
**运价为何波动？** **运力过剩怎么办？** **燃油成本涨多少？**
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