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Ti:2026年 Q2航空货运运价追踪报告(中译版)(16页).pdf

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1、Air Freight Rate Tracker Q2 2026Air Freight Rate Tracker Q2 20262GLOBAL INTRODUCTIONAir freight markets in Q2 2026 are navigating a volatile recovery following the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February.Rates surged dramatically in March and April as airspace closures grounded Gulf carri

2、ers and eliminated critical transit capacity,but have shown early signs of stabilisation in May as a ceasefire brought partial airspace reopening.Global air cargo spot rates surged+30%year-on-year in April to$3.34 per kg to reach their highest level since October 2022,according to Freightos data.The

3、 sharp quarterly increase reflects supply-side shocks rather than demand growth.Demand has been mixed.IATA reported strong 11.2%year-on-year growth in February 2026,but this reflected Lunar New Year effects and pre-conflict momentum.March saw a 4.8%contraction in global air cargo demand as the confl

4、ict took hold.Capacity remains the binding constraint,with global air cargo capacity down 4.7%year-on-year in April according to IATA data,driven by Gulf hub closures.Middle Eastern airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways have begun restoring operations in May.However,even if conditions stabilise,a

5、 rapid return to normal is unlikely as airlines will be cautious about reinstating routes through the Middle East,given the fragility of the ceasefire and ongoing geopolitical risk.Jet fuel prices have been the other major factor,which have doubled since the war started.Although prices eased from Ma

6、rch peaks,they remain elevated.For Q2 as a whole,capacity constraints and fuel volatility have defined the market,with the ceasefire offering only tentative relief.Air Freight Rate Tracker Q2 20263GLOBAL RATESJAN 21FEB 21MAR 21APR 21MAY 21JUN 21JUL 21AUG 21SEP 21OCT 21NOV 21DEC 21JAN 22FEB 22MAR 22A

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1. **市场波动与核心驱动**:2026年Q2全球空运市场因中东冲突(2月底爆发)经历剧烈波动,运价飙升主要源于供应冲击(非需求增长)。 2. **运价数据**:4月全球空运现货价同比+30%至$3.34/kg(2022年10月以来最高);5月去程运价$3.7/kg(同比+35.85%,环比+26.56%),回程$2.9/kg(同比+25.44%,环比+17.90%)。 3. **需求与产能**:2月需求同比+11.2%(春节效应),3月同比-4.8%;4月全球产能同比-4.7%(IATA数据),中东枢纽关闭导致9大机场3-4月 cargo 量同比降52%。 4. **成本因素**: jet 燃料价格Q2同比+141%(全球指数470.4),冲突期间价格翻倍,航司加收战争风险附加费。 5. **未来展望**:Q2运价走势取决于冲突持续时间,若紧张持续,燃料附加费将进一步推高运价;替代枢纽(土耳其、沙特等)或现拥堵。
**运价为何暴涨?** **中东冲突影响几何?** **未来运价如何走?**
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