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美国农业部(USDA):2026墨西哥谷物与饲料产业更新报告(中译版)(24页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:June 23,2026 Report Number:MX2026-0032 Report Name:Grain and Feed Update Country:Mexico Post:Mexico Ci

2、ty Report Category:Grain and Feed Prepared By:Rodrigo Trejo Approved By:Susan Karimiha Report Highlights:Mexicos corn production is forecast to decline in marketing year 2026/2027 as higher input costs and low domestic prices weigh on planting decisions.Corn,wheat,and rice imports are expected to in

3、crease as domestic output remains insufficient to meet growing demand,whereas sorghum imports are expected to fall on higher domestic production.The United States is expected to remain the main source of Mexican grain and feed imports.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Grain demand in marketing year(MY)2026/2027 i

4、s expected to remain strong,supported by population growth and continued expansion in the poultry and swine sectors.Mexico is forecast to remain a major grain importer as domestic production remains insufficient to meet growing demand.The Bank of Mexico(Banxico)projects economic growth of 1.1 percen

5、t in 2026,which is expected to sustain steady demand for grains for both food and feed use.Mexicos corn production is forecast to decline two percent to 24.3 million metric tons(MMT),pressured by higher input costs and relatively low domestic prices.Corn imports are projected to rise two percent to

6、27.0 MMT,driven by lower domestic production and stronger demand from the livestock and feed sectors.Wheat production is forecast to increase 14 percent to 2.0 MMT,supported by a partial recovery of reservoir levels in Sonora and Sinaloa.Imports are projected two percent higher at 5.9 MMT,while expo

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1. **玉米**:2026/2027年度产量预计降至2430万吨(-2%),因投入成本高、价格低;进口增至2700万吨(+2%),美国为主要来源。 2. **小麦**:产量预计增至200万吨(+14%),因水库水位恢复;进口增至590万吨(+2%),出口增至15万吨(+25%)。 3. **大米**:产量预计增至192万吨(+4%),进口增至83万吨(+4%),依赖南美供应(如乌拉圭占主导)。 4. **高粱**:产量预计反弹至420万吨(+15%),因成本低于玉米;进口降至30万吨(-40%)。 5. **政策**:墨西哥延续《反通胀法令》,对部分谷物(小麦、玉米、高粱)免征关税,但大米配额限制非自贸国进口。
**玉米产量为何降?** **小麦进口增多少?** **高粱进口为何减?**
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