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eFinancialModels:2026-2031年摩洛哥太阳能市场研究报告:光热发电、努尔综合项目与绿氢转型(中译版)(44页).pdf

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1、ContentsExecutive Summary.41 Methodology and Scope.61.1 Audience and analytical weighting.61.2 Geographic taxonomy.71.3 Data sources and units.71.4 Pair this study with an eFinancialModels template.81.5 AI-tools disclosure.82 The Industry Today.92.1 Installed capacity by pillar.92.2 Regional concent

2、ration and grid taxonomy.102.3 CSP-to-PV+BESS pivot.113 Supply-Side Analysis.123.1 Noor complex site-by-site performance.123.2 Utility PV pipeline funnel through 2031.133.3 Offre Maroc FID-readiness scorecard.143.4 Capex composition for utility PV.154 Demand-Side Analysis.164.1 Domestic load and ONE

3、E Equipment Plan.164.2 EU export Spain interconnection,Xlinks adjacency,H2 corridors.174.3 CBAM,RFNBO,and the Hydrogen Bank pull.184.4 Port-by-port H2 demand.195 Pricing and Cost Dynamics.205.1 Utility PV LCOE and peer benchmarks.205.2 Green-hydrogen LCOH curve.215.3 Wheeling and bilateral-PPA econo

4、mics under Law 40-19.226 Three Scenarios 2026 to 2031.236.1 Bear case(25%probability).236.2 Base case(50%probability).246.3 Bull case(25%probability).247 Technology and Innovation Trends.257.1 CSP trajectory trough,tower,hybrid.25eFinancialModelsMorocco Solar Energy Market Study 20262031V02 2026 202

5、6 eFinancialModels All rights reservedPage3 of 447.2 Green-H2 stack electrolyzer,desalination,salt-cavern.267.3 Digitalisation,AI O&M,desert performance.268 Regulatory and Policy Context.278.1 Law 40-19 and ANRE wheeling tariffs.278.2 Offre Maroc framework and Investment Charter.288.3 Law 82-21 and

6、Decree 2.25.100(self-consumption).288.4 Procurement decisions Noor Midelt II/III,Noor Atlas,UHV.299 Competitive Landscape.309.1 Operator scorecard.309.2 Offre Maroc consortium structure.319.3 DFI and concessional-finance instrument map.3110 Best Practices and Innovation Benchmark.3211 Risks and Weak

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1. **三支柱太阳能经济**:摩洛哥太阳能经济由三支柱构成——CSP(Noor Ouarzazate 510MW)、公用事业级PV(2025年1285MW)及绿色氢/氨(Offre Maroc框架下6个项目,325亿美元投资)。 2. **CSP转向PV+BESS**:Noor Ouarzazate III因14个月 outage(维修成本5100万美元)暴露生命周期风险,MASEN战略转向PV+BESS,如Noor Midelt II/III(800MW PV+602MWh BESS,中标价MAD 0.3245/kWh)。 3. **绿色氢进展**:Offre Maroc项目FID时间分化,基础情景预测2027年2个项目、2030年4个项目达FID。 4. **监管与出口**:ANRE完成输电定价(TURD 6.07 c/kWh),西班牙互联扩容至2.1GW(2030年),Xlinks项目被拒后出口重心转向氢/氨(Tanger Med等四港)。 5. **成本竞争力**:公用事业PV LCOE约32美元/MWh(低于MENA均值37美元),绿色氢LCOH目标2030年降至2.5美元/kg。
摩洛哥太阳能前景如何? 绿氢项目进展怎样? CSP是否还有竞争力?
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