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世界银行:2026年世界大宗商品市场展望报告(4月刊)(中译版)(69页).pdf

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1、Commodity Markets OutlookA World Bank Group ReportAPRIL 2026AprAprOctOctPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedCommodity Markets OutlookAPRIL 2026A World Bank Group Report 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Developm

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1. **中东战争引发历史性冲击**:2026年3月霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致全球原油供应减少1000万桶/日,创历史最大供应缺口,布伦特油价单月涨幅达63%($72→$118/桶)。 2. **能源价格飙升**:2026年能源价格指数预计上涨24%,布伦特原油均价$86/桶(较1月预测上调$26);亚洲LNG价格3月暴涨94%,欧洲天然气价格涨59%。 3. **化肥与金属市场波动**:化肥指数因尿素价格单月涨超50%而达十年第二大涨幅;铝价因中东出口受阻单月涨10%,基本金属价格指数创历史新高。 4. **经济影响**:新兴市场和发展中经济体(EMDEs)2026年增长预期下调0.4个百分点至3.6%,通胀率预计升至5.1%(四年最高)。 5. **风险与展望**:若 disruptions 持续,布伦特油价或达$95–$115/桶;全球粮食不安全人口可能增加4500万。
油价会涨多少? 粮食安全受威胁? 金属价格创新高?
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