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安联:2026英国脱欧十年经济研究报告:具备韧性 但复苏乏力(中译版)(42页).pdf

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1、Allianz Research22 June 2026Ten Years After Brexit:Resilience Without Revival Allianz Research2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-5 Executive SummaryPage 5-12 10 years since the Brexit vote:an evolving economic and energy landscape Page 13-17 UK economic and energy policies in need of a revampPage 18-25

2、 The UKs trade performance:goods imports substitution,services trade powering ahead Page 26-29 Financial markets:unofficial dollarization and eroding confidence but the City of London keeps(most of)its shinePage 30-17 UK private equity market has lost its magic,low tech exposure prevails 22 June 202

3、6 Brexit 10 years on:Neither collapse,nor renaissance.As the UK looks for its 7th Prime Minister in 10 years,this week also marks a decade since Brexit roiled markets and divided forecasters.Predictions ranged from economic collapse to a renaissance.A decade later,we take a hard look at which projec

4、tions came through and which failed to pass.The outcome has been more nuanced that many expected,with indicators pointing to both economic strengths and weaknesses not all of them Brexit related.Britains Economic Backbone:The knowledge economy,tech and clean energy.UK ICT exports to the EU have almo

5、st doubled since Brexit,demonstrating the continued competitiveness of Britains knowledge economy.The UK remains the worlds second-largest exporter of financial services,accounting for 21%of global exports,while deepening its provision of financial services to EU markets.In private markets,the UK co

6、ntinues to attract more venture-capital funding than any European competitor.Between 2020 and 2026,it raised roughly USD164bn.Since then,London has retained much of its global financial importance.The UK still accounts for nearly 50%of global OTC interest-rate derivatives trading and almost 38%of gl

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1. **经济表现**:英国GDP十年平均增长1.4%,但若无脱欧,GDP或高出2-4%;外国移民贡献超50%GDP增长,但“脱欧派”地区59%人口收入落后全国均值。 2. **贸易结构**:对欧商品贸易降21.3%,转向中、美进口(中国占14%,美国11%);服务贸易盈余抵消商品逆差,金融出口占全球21%。 3. **能源成本**:脱欧后退出欧盟内部电力市场,批发电价较欧盟高15-25欧元/兆瓦时,2025年电网拥堵成本达18.3亿英镑。 4. **政策挑战**:生产力疲软(AI基建排名全球第27)、住房供应不足(年完工量仅19万套),需改革规划、税收(如扩大VAT基)及NHS。 5. **金融与投资**:伦敦仍占全球外汇交易38%,但私募投资较无脱欧路径低12-18%,风险溢价上升。
**英国经济韧性何在?** **脱欧十年得失?** **能源市场新挑战?**
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