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世界银行(WBG):2026年全球经济展望报告(6月刊)(英文版)(200页).pdf

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1、A World Bank GroupFlagship ReportGlobal Economic Prospects JUNE 2026Global Economic Prospects JUNE 2026 Global Economic Prospects 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org Some righ

2、ts reserved 1 2 3 4 29 28 27 26 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they repres

3、ent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy,completeness,or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions,or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information,methods,processes,or

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1. **全球经济放缓**:2026年全球经济增长预计降至2.5%,为疫情后最低,主因中东冲突推高能源价格(布伦特原油均价94美元/桶,涨36%),加剧通胀压力。 2. **新兴市场承压**:新兴市场和发展中经济体(EMDEs)增长放缓至3.6%,人均收入增长为疫情后最弱,四分之一经济体将比2019年更贫困。 3. **债务与政策挑战**:EMDEs政府债务达历史高位,推高主权债券利差(约110基点),需加强财政可持续性;大宗商品出口国财政波动大,需完善规则和主权基金。 4. **机遇与风险**:AI、清洁能源投资(2025年达2.2万亿美元)和区域贸易协定(占全球贸易60%)是增长潜力,但地缘冲突、贸易政策不确定性构成下行风险(若能源供应严重恶化,全球增长或降至1.3%)。
全球经济前景如何? 债务危机有何影响? AI能否提振增长?
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