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EEIST:2025迈向近零排放钢铁研究报告:面向主要钢铁生产国的模型化政策洞察(英文版)(21页).pdf

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1、EEISTTowardS nEar-zEro EmISSIonS STEEl:modEllIng-baSEd polIcy InSIghTS for major producErS auThorS:Shruti Dayal,arpan Golechha,Simon Sharpe,pim Vercoulen,Joe morriSroe,Femke niJSSeknowleDGe partnerSExecutive summary 41.Introduction 6Context:Steel production and consumption 8Growing emissions and the

2、 imperative for transition 10Policies for the transition at an early stage 112.Methodology 12Policy options tested 13Model structure and key assumptions 153.Results:Comparing the effectiveness of individual policy options 18Policy option 1:Cap on capacity additions of high-emission production techno

3、logies 19Policy option 2:Carbon pricing 22Policy option 3:Subsidies and procurement 24Policy option 4:Clean steel mandates 26Policy option 5:Combined policies scenario 28Case study:India 304.Policy implications and uncertainties 325.Conclusion 36Bibliography 38ContentsThis work was funded by the UK

4、Governments Department for Energy Security&Net Zero as part of the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition(EEIST)programme.The contents of this report represent the views of its authors,and should not be taken to represent the views of the UK government or the organisations to which the

5、 authors are affiliated.For more information about EEIST visit:eeist.co.uk.Author(s)2025.This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.Executive summaryEEIST1.Identifying the right policies to drive the transition to near-zero emissions steelmaking is important to futur

6、e industrial competitiveness as well as to decarbonisation.2.Scrap-based production is already a cost-competitive source of low-emissions steel,and should be maximised,but it cannot meet the entirety of global steel demand;introducing clean technologies in primary steel production is also essential.

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1. **政策组合必要性**:单一政策(如碳定价、产能限制)难以实现钢铁行业近零排放,需结合补贴、采购、清洁钢 mandate 等措施推动氢基(H2-DRI-EAF)和碳捕集(BF-BOF-CCS)技术部署。 2. **核心数据**: - 全球钢铁产量2010-2023年增长32%(1,433Mt→1,892Mt),中国占56%(2023年)。 - 钢铁行业占全球直接能源相关CO₂排放7%,需2050年减排90%以符合《巴黎协定》。 3. **政策效果**: - 补贴+采购可使中国/印度2050年减排50-60%,但需配套产能限制(2030年起禁建新高炉)避免碳锁定。 - 组合政策下,美国/日本2050年减排90-95%,印度2070年减排90%。 4. **挑战**:废钢供应(尤其印度)、绿氢成本(假设$2.2/kg)、CCS地质限制及贸易竞争力(需碳边境调节机制)为关键不确定性。
钢铁脱碳难在哪? 政策如何助力零碳钢? 氢能炼钢靠谱吗?
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