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经合组织(OECD):2026年全球钢铁市场展望报告(中译版)(74页).pdf

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1、OECD Steel Outlook 2026OECD Steel Outlook 2026OECD Steel Outlook2026This work was approved and declassified by the OECD Steel Committee on 12 May 2026.This document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory,to the delimitation

2、 of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Please cite this publication as:OECD(2026),OECD Steel Outlook 2026,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/99ab9b0c-en.ISBN 978-92-64-59445-6(print)ISBN 978-92-64-80606-1(PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-55269-2(HTML)OEC

3、D Steel OutlookISSN 1995-3917(print)ISSN 1999-1185(online)Photo credits:Cover QinJin/S.Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at:https:/www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.OECD 2026 Attribution 4.0 International(CC BY 4.0)This work is made available under the Creative Commons

4、Attribution 4.0 International licence.By using this work,you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Attribution you must cite the work.Translations you must cite the original work,identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the

5、 event of any discrepancy between the original work and the translation,only the text of the original work should be considered valid.Adaptations you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD.The opinions expressed and arguments empl

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1. **全球钢铁过剩产能加剧**:预计2028年全球钢铁过剩产能将达7.45亿吨,较2025年增加1亿吨,接近历史高位。 2. **中国出口激增**:2025年中国钢铁出口达1.31亿吨,较2020年增长153%,占其产量的14%,创历史新高。 3. **补贴持续上升**:2024年中国钢铁企业补贴中位数达其他国家的15倍,补贴率自2019年翻倍,主要来自地方政府生产激励和出口支持。 4. **贸易措施增加但规避问题突出**:2025年新增75起反倾销/反补贴调查,但中国通过转口东南亚(如半成品钢出口增300%)规避措施。 5. **需求疲软与原料限制**:全球需求年增速仅0.9%(2030年前),而铬、镍矿石及废钢出口限制加剧供应压力,能源成本上升进一步挤压利润。
钢铁危机有多深? 补贴如何扭曲市场? 贸易措施有效吗?
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