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SolAbility:2026-2035年全球液化天然气(LNG)市场展望报告:供给扩张、需求走弱与资产搁浅风险(英文版)(23页).pdf

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1、GLOBAL LNG MARKET OUTLOOK 2025-2035 Page 1 of 23 Castles Built on Sand Increasing Supply,Declining Demand&the Stranded Asset Risk:Global LNG Market Outlook GLOBAL LNG MARKET OUTLOOK 2025-2035 Page 2 of 23 GLOBAL LNG MARKET OUTLOOK 2026-2035 Renewables are increasing the gap between expected demand a

2、nd committed supply:the LNG Stranded Asset Risk February 2026 Methodology,data gathering,calculation,&report compilation by SolAbility.SolAbility.Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License Reproduction and dissemination with citation of source is

3、welcome&encouraged.Data Sources IEA Gas Market Report Q4 2024,GIIGNL Annual Report 2024,Shell LNG Outlook 2025,Wood Mackenzie Q4 2024,LUT University Jan 2025,IEEFA,various Company Filings 2024/25 About SolAbility SolAbility is an independent sustainability think-tank with a history in sustainable ma

4、nagement implementation for large international corporations.Our support in strategy development,ESG management tools,and ESG communication have made 3 global sustainability leaders in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index,the highest accolade in corporate sustainability.SolAbility is the proud publish

5、er of the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index.SolAbility Sustainable Intelligence Zurich,Switzerland Seoul,Korea GLOBAL LNG MARKET OUTLOOK 2025-2035 Page 3 of 23 1 Executive Summary The global LNG landscape is characterised by two opposite developments:Approximately$394 billion in committed LNG

6、 capital is currently under construction or in advanced development globally across 25 major projects,representing roughly 390 MTPA of new and expanded liquefaction capacity.At the same time,planned LNG receiver terminal and re-gas stations are being cancelled(Pakistan,Vietnam,the Philippines)On cos

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1. **供应过剩与需求疲软**:全球LNG产能将达575 MTPA(2030年),但需求仅297 MTPA(混合情景),结构性 surplus 278 MTPA,48%产能闲置。 2. **价格跌破成本**:JKM现货价格或跌至$4.50-5.50/MMBtu(美国现金成本),低于所有项目全盈亏平衡点(如美国$8.50-10.80/MMBtu)。 3. **区域分化**:卡塔尔(盈亏$3.80-3.90/MMBtu)和阿联酋勉强盈利;美、加、澳项目全面亏损,年现金损失达$120-150亿。 4. **新兴市场“跳过”LNG**:非OECD国家因光伏($30-40/MWh)成本远低于LNG发电($80-120/MWh),需求增长停滞。 5. **投资风险**:$394亿在建产能中,$255亿资本面临减值,俄罗斯项目因制裁已实质搁浅。
LNG市场过剩吗? 谁将损失惨重? 太阳能击败LNG?
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