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美国农业部(USDA):2026新西兰乳制品产业半年度报告(中译版)(29页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:June 12,2026 Report Number:NZ2026-0009 Report Name:Dairy and Products Semi-annual Country:New Zealand

2、Post:Wellington Report Category:Dairy and Products Prepared By:Robere Hall Approved By:Lazaro Sandoval Report Highlights:New Zealand fluid milk production for market year(MY)2026 is forecast to reach a record 22.1 million metric tons(MMT).This forecast reflects favorable economic conditions for the

3、dairy sector,including strong farm-gate returns supporting higher milk output in addition to continued investment in productivity improvements and infrastructure.MY 2025 milk production concluded at 21.93 MMT,reaching production levels not seen since MY 2018,when the national herd had an additional

4、315,000 cows in milk,reflecting strong sectorial productivity growth.Whole milk powder(WMP)continues to be the leading export category by volume.However,a notable production shift is underway with expanded capacity for cheese production,as well as specialty and functional products.2 Executive Summar

5、y New Zealand fluid milk production for 2026 market year(MY)is forecast to reach a record 22.1 million metric tons(MMT).This forecast reflects favorable economic conditions for the dairy sector,including strong farm-gate returns supporting higher milk output in addition to continued investment produ

6、ctivity improvements,innovation,and on-farm infrastructure.Milk production in 2026 is influenced by the following factors:Strong farm gate milk price and growing margins Expansion of national dairy herd Increased imports of supplemental feed and fertilizer Production concerns due to El Nio weather p

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1. **牛奶产量创新高**:2026年新西兰牛奶产量预计达2210万吨,创历史纪录,受益于强劲的农场收购价、奶牛存栏量增加(预计增至472万头)及饲料与肥料进口增长。 2. **出口结构优化**:全脂奶粉(WMP)仍是出口主力,但奶酪、婴幼儿配方奶粉(IMF)等高附加值产品产能扩张,2025年奶酪出口量增长11%至41.5万吨。 3. **主要市场动态**:中国占新西兰乳制品出口的36%,2025年对华奶酪、黄油出口量增长10%-25%;美国对新西兰加征15%关税,但出口收入仍增16%。 4. **政策与挑战**:政府暂缓环保法规,与印度签署自贸协定(仅IMF等部分产品关税减免);厄尔尼诺天气或影响春季生产(占全年40%)。 5. **行业投资**:乳企转向高价值产品,减少奶粉加工;2026年肥料进口持平,饲料进口(如棕榈粕)创新高。
**奶产创新高?** **奶酪出口增?** **乳业新趋势?**
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