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AFRY:2024-2025巴西纸浆与造纸行业全景报告(中译版)(13页).pdf

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1、23GUIA ABTCP FORNECEDORES&FABRICANTES CELULOSE E PAPEL ABTCP GUIDE OF PULP AND PAPER MANUFACTURERS AND SUPPLIERS2024/2025PANORAMA SETORIALSECTOR OVERVIEWEconomic Overview-2024According to the World Bank,the global economy is stabilizing despite challenges such as the pandemic,restrictive monetary po

2、licies,and geopolitical uncertainties.The U.S.economy exceeded expectations in the first half of 2024,allowing the Federal Reserve(FED)to signal the first interest rate cut since 2022.In China,the real estate crisis continues to inhibit domestic consumption,with its economy converging toward the glo

3、bal average by the end of this decade.The World Bank predicts a global expansion between 2.6%and 2.7%for 2024-25,lower than the 3.1%average for the 2010-2019 period.The forecast is for inflation to continue falling slowly and for commodity prices to remain stable.The bank projects a global growth of

4、 2.6%in 2024,with a slight increase to 2.7%in 2025 and 2026.However,the intensification of armed conflicts,economic fragmentation,extreme climatic events,and political crises that cause migratory diasporas may alter the scenario projected by the institution.Global Outlook of the Pulp Industry-2024In

5、 the first half of 2023,the global pulp industry had to make adjustments in response to slowing demand,excess supply,persistent cost pressures,and rising uncertainties,with fiber prices falling in key markets.By:Manoel Rodrigues Neves Economic Studies Manager-AFRYMaurcio Porto Sr.Market Consultant-A

6、FRYThoms Cairo Economic Studies Analyst-AFRYBRAZILS PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY Figure 1.Contribution to global growth(2010 2026e)Source:World Bank Overview of the Pulp and Paper Market24GUIA ABTCP FORNECEDORES&FABRICANTES CELULOSE E PAPEL ABTCP GUIDE OF PULP AND PAPER MANUFACTURERS AND SUPPLIERS2024/20

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1. **全球经济与浆纸行业**:2024年全球经济预计增长2.6%-2.7%,低于2010-2019年平均水平(3.1%)。全球浆行业受需求放缓、供应过剩影响,但中国需求复苏推动欧洲浆出口增长33%。 2. **区域市场动态**: - **中国**:房地产危机抑制消费,但政府刺激政策推动浆进口关税下调,2023年占巴西浆出口48%。 - **美国**:OCC价格从$30/吨升至$90/吨,新增210万吨再生纤维产能。 - **巴西**:2023年浆产量2420万吨(出口占74%),2024年Suzano Cerrado项目投产后将创新高。 3. **趋势与挑战**: - 包装纸(占巴西产量56%)和卫生纸需求增长,印刷纸持续下降。 - 欧盟《无毁林法案》(EUDR)2024年实施,强化可持续性要求,巴西因合规优势受益。 - 地缘冲突(如红海航运受阻)和贸易摩擦(中美)影响供应链。
**全球 pulp 趋势?** **巴西 pulp 现状?** **行业未来机遇?**
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