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挪威船级社(DNV):2026年能源转型展望报告:至2060年氢能发展路径(中译版)(95页).pdf

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1、1DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2026 Hydrogen to 2060ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2026 HYDROGEN TO 2060 From pilots to scale for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen and synthetic fuelsFOREWORDHowever,as we outline in this new forecast,that still leaves a substantial market for clean hydrogen,with volumes

2、growing 100-fold between now and 2060,and with cumulative CAPEX investment of some USD 3 trillion over the next three decades.Clean hydrogen is not market competitive and will remain so until carbon emission costs are sufficiently high both on the supply and demand side.Despite ongoing technology le

3、arning and cost improvements,our forecast volumes are predicated on continued and,in some cases,intensified Ditlev EngelCEO,Energy SystemsDNVpolicy support beyond presently-stated commitments in the form of mandates,subsidies,offtake agreements,contracts for difference,and so on.It is important to u

4、nderline that the clean hydrogen industry has not been at a standstill these past four years,and especially not in China where there is now a strong push to scale up clean hydrogen largely a new development tied to the current(15th)Five-Year Plan.There are now over 1,500 planned pilot and small-scal

5、e hydrogen projects worldwide;about one third have advanced to final investment decision(FID);only a handful of substantial projects have advanced to construction.Some of those,as well as key joint industry initiatives led by DNV,are highlighted in this report.Piloting and collaboration have provide

6、d valuable insights into the safety,efficiency,sustainability,and financing of clean hydrogen.Many of these lessons have now been recorded,with important recommended practices,guidelines,and new standards published or soon to be released.Producing clean hydrogen is not just about constructing new fa

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1. **市场规模与增长**:全球氢能市场当前价值2400亿美元,年产化石氢1亿吨,排放13亿吨CO₂;清洁氢(可再生/低碳氢)到2060年将增长100倍,累计投资3万亿美元,替代650万吨未减排氢,年减排超20亿吨。 2. **政策依赖性**:清洁氢需政策支持(碳定价、补贴、强制配额)才能与化石氢竞争,因成本差距显著(可再生氢3-10美元/kg vs 化石氢1-5美元/kg)。美国政策逆转导致2050年预测下调45%。 3. **区域动态**:中国主导电解槽制造(占全球60%),35%新增产能在中国;MENA和欧洲为出口枢纽;印度、日本通过需求侧政策推动国内应用。 4. **挑战与机遇**:安全认证、供应链建设、电网整合是规模化关键;硬脱碳领域(钢铁、航运、航空)为刚需,但需解决“安全信心缺口”。
氢能市场有多大? 氢能成本何时降? 氢能政策靠什么?
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