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毕马威:2026骐骥启新程——“十五五”规划宏观趋势与展望报告(英文版)(58页).pdf

上传人: 小*** 编号:1267915 2026-06-15 58页 6.96MB

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1、 2026 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited liability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau SAR partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong SAR partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KP

2、MG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Embarking on a New JourneyMacro Trends and Outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan PeriodKPMG.Make the D 20261 2026 KPMG Huazhen LLP,a Peoples Republic of China partnership,KPMG Advisory(China)Limited,a limited l

3、iability company in Chinese Mainland,KPMG,a Macau SAR partnership,and KPMG,a Hong Kong SAR partnership,are member firms of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.With 2026

4、the Year of the Horse China enters the opening year of its 15th Five-Year Plan.The“15th Five-Year Plan”period represents a critical juncture:one in which the country should consolidate its foundations and bring its full capabilities to bear as it pursues socialist modernisation.It is also a period i

5、n which strategic opportunities and significant risks exist side by side,as uncertainty grows and hard-to-predict variables multiply.Internationally,the global economic recovery remains uneven and arduous.Geopolitical conflicts are erupting with greater frequency,undercurrents of deglobalisation are

6、 gaining strength,and the technological revolution has become deeply entangled with great-power rivalry.Together,these forces are reshaping global governance and rapidly redrawing industrial and supply chains.Domestically,China retains robust long-term advantages:an ultra-large-scale consumer market

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1. **战略定位**:15th Five-Year Plan是巩固基础、推进社会主义现代化的关键期,面临机遇与风险并存,需平衡改革、增长与稳定。 2. **经济目标**:GDP年均增长需达4.17%(2026-2035),2026年目标4.5%-5%;居民消费占GDP比例需提升,服务消费占比从46.2%向发达国家水平(如美国68.5%)靠拢。 3. **产业升级**: - 传统产业加速数字化、智能化,预计新增10万亿市场空间。 - 战略新兴产业(如新能源、机器人)占GDP目标13%(2024年为13%),未来产业(量子技术、6G等)将培育新增长引擎。 4. **风险与改革**:强化科技自立与供应链韧性,推进统一大市场建设,财政金融改革从“扩规模”转向“提质量”。 5. **绿色转型**:非化石能源占比目标25%(2030年),PM2.5浓度控制取代空气质量比例指标。
**消费升级方向?** **产业转型关键?** **绿色转型路径?**
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