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第一太平戴维斯(Savills):2024年中国房地产展望报告(英文版)(24页).pdf

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1、China Real Estate OutlookSPOTLIGHTSavills ResearchChina Research-2024目录2目录3ContentsLiving Are further declines expected in 2024?Why are investors piling into the rental housing market?How are demographics shaping future housing trends?Working When will the office market start to recover?What are Gra

2、de B office prospects given the surge of new high-spec supply?What are the future office needs of various industries?ConsumingWhat are Chinese consumers still consuming?Is the retail market facing consumption downgrade?Consumer options outside of shopping malls?Producing Will 2024 witness a recovery

3、 in the logistics market?Will the demand for green warehousing continue to rise?Is there still room for improvement in reverse logistics under the circular economy?Financing Will the debt crisis be alleviated in the future?How big will the market size of C-REITs be in the future?Where is the next in

4、vestment opportunity?456 7911131415161718192021Historically,Chinas residential policies have predominantly emphasized demand-side controls.However,there has been a recent shift in focus towards supply-side reform.The gradual introduction of detailed policies for affordable housing development is exp

5、ected to transform Chinas residential market into a dual-track system,encompassing social housing and commodity housing.Notably,in the 14th Five-Year Plans of the four first-tier cities,affordable rental housing constitutes over 40%of the new residential supply.Similar to global markets,the affordab

6、le housing system,inclusive of rental housing,is tailored for low-income households facing limited housing options,particularly in major urban centres.Concurrently,market-oriented housing targets enhanced needs and offers an improved living environment.Residential properties have been a cornerstone

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1. **住宅市场**:政策转向“双轨制”,保障性租赁住房占一线城市新增供应超40%;2024年销售或温和改善,租赁市场净收益率超4%。 2. **办公楼市场**:供过于求,空置率高;2024年需求复苏缓慢,新经济行业(如AI、新能源)成增长点。 3. **零售消费**:体验消费复苏(如旅游、餐饮),但消费分级明显,性价比品牌增长快;非传统零售项目(如社区商业)兴起。 4. **物流市场**:2024年供应趋缓,西部需求增长;绿色仓储需求上升,中国LEED认证仓库占全球近20%。 5. **融资与投资**:房企债务危机持续,C-REITs市场潜力大(若达股市2%规模或达1.7万亿元),零售REITs扩容带来新机遇。
**楼市何时回暖?** **租赁市场为何火爆?** **物流需求会反弹吗?**
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