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麦肯锡:2026重塑基层医疗:新时代医护人力配置与诊疗模式创新洞察报告(英文版)(13页).pdf

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1、Primary care,reimagined:Workforce and care model innovation in a modern ageTITLE AAppendixDisclaimer These materials reflect general insights based on currently available data and modeling assumptions related to primary care supply and demand.The analyses have not been independently verified and are

2、 inherently uncertain.Future outcomes may differ materially from any statements of expectation,forecasts,or projections contained herein.These materials are not a guarantee of results and should not be relied upon as definitive forecasts.They do not constitute medical,policy,legal,or other regulated

3、 advice and do not include all information required to determine a specific course of action.The projections and findings are provided“as is”solely for informational purposes,without any representation or warranty,and all liability is expressly disclaimed.References to specific data sources,organiza

4、tions,or external models are included solely for illustration and do not imply endorsement or recommendation.The recipient remains solely responsible for all decisions,interpretations,and use of these materials,as well as for ensuring compliance with applicable laws,regulations,and standards.Model o

5、verviewThis appendix serves as a methodological supplement to Making care primary again:How workforce reform,investment,and new models of care can improve the patient experience,an interactive from the McKinsey Health Institute in collaboration West Health Institute.The interactive is designed to es

6、timate current and future primary care capacity in the United States,to highlight potential gaps between the demand for primary care visits and the supply of provider capacity,and to model potential scenarios that address the gap.Demand modeling.The demand section includes two components:selecting c

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1. **核心目标**:分析美国初级医疗供需缺口,通过创新 workforce 与 care model 改善患者体验。 2. **需求建模**:聚焦三大疾病组(行为健康 BH、阿尔茨海默病 ADOD、代谢健康),占70%初级医疗就诊;未诊断人群通过90%诊断率估算潜在需求。 3. **供给建模**:基于5类初级医疗 provider(家庭医生、内科医生等)数量及年均就诊量(如家庭医生15次/年)计算产能。 4. **场景分析**: - **需求侧**:GLP-1s、ADMTs、行为健康整合模型可能增加就诊量,但降低总成本; - **供给侧**:AI工具(28%-90%采用率)可提升provider每日1-8次就诊效率。 5. **缺口计算**:需求减供给,正值表示短缺,负值表示过剩(当前标准30分钟/次)。
**需求缺口有多大?** **如何提升医疗效率?** **AI如何改变诊疗?**
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