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立信（BDO）：2025年零售预测报告：零售韧性-不确定经济环境下的成功策略（中译版）（17页）.pdf

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1、 Retail Resilience:Strategies for Success in an Uncertain EconomyRetail Forecast Report 202512024 Retail PerformanceSophie MichaelPartner,National Head of RetailWhilst the year started with promising signs with actual inflation falling and talk of cuts in interest rates,optimism soon faded,particula

2、rly in the fourth quarter;the most critical quarter to Retailers.Interest rates remained sticky for most of the year until a 25bps drop in the summer.Consumer confidence began to rise in the first part of the year but again fell in recent months.As we look at our High Street Sales Tracker(HSST)data,

3、retail sales have been challenged.Online sales saw some revival which was in contrast to the falls seen in brick-and-mortar stores which are still adapting to new consumer behaviours.Furthermore,we can see retail has underperformed against other discretionary spend categories such as travel and leis

4、ure.So how can retailers remain relevant and compete for consumer spend against other discretionary spend categories?The salt in the wound for the retail sector came in the Autumn Budget which outlined a significant increase in the overall cost of doing business mainly in the increase in NI contribu

5、tions and the increase to the minimum wage.To win in 2025 will be tough but we are seeing some success stories.Many of the successes in retail are those which are adapting to the key trends outlined in this report.Inside this short report you will find our view on the trends to look out for,how thes

6、e are impacting different retail segments and examples of what good looks like in the sector.Introduction from Sophie MichaelComing into 2024 there was a sense of confidence for the retail sector.Inflation and interest rates were forecast to fall,freight challenges were easing and consumers started

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1. **2024年零售表现**：通胀下降初期提振信心，但全年零售销售增长主要依赖价格（+2.0%），实际销量低迷；第四季度消费者支出显著下滑，服装鞋类支出下降2.9%，而美妆个护（+4.1%）和健康补充剂（+4.2%）表现强劲。 2. **消费趋势转变**：消费者从“购买商品”转向“体验消费”，2023-2024年体验支出占比升至21%；线上销售复苏，但实体店仍面临挑战，退货率上升侵蚀利润。 3. **2025年关键趋势**： - **Gen Z驱动美妆健康**：抗衰老产品需求增长，美妆与健康营养融合。 - **可持续性与透明度**：品牌推行环保实践（如二手平台、回收计划）。 - **AI与电商革新**：个性化推荐和虚拟试衣等技术提升体验。 - **健康与营养热潮**：维生素和运动营养品销量激增，植物基产品受欢迎。 4. **行业挑战**：生活成本压力下，消费者倾向二手商品和灵活支付；家居市场受租房率上升影响，转向平价 modular 家具。
**零售如何逆袭？** **消费趋势变了吗？** **AI能救零售吗？**
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