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Rhodium Group:2026路径迥异:中美清洁能源技术制造规模化发展路径对比报告(英文版)(15页).pdf

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1、RHODIUM GROUP|ENERGY&CLIMATE US AND CHINA CLEAN TECH MANUFACTURING 1 Worlds Apart:Contrasting US-China Approaches to Scaling Clean Technology Manufacturing May 13,2026 Kate Larsen(),Hannah Pitt(),Laura Gormley(),Xinyu Zheng()Global clean technology manufacturing investment has moderated after a deca

2、de of extraordinary growth.China and the US were both the primary drivers of that rise and the subsequent pullbackthough the nature of each countrys decline differs significantly.C hinas c lean m anufacturing boom was built on sustained,multi-pronged government support paired with demand-side polici

3、es that created deep domestic markets.In recent years,Beijing has pulled back to address excess capacity and intensifying price wars,and investment has fallen nearly 70%from its 2023 peak.Even so,ongoing policy support,strong domestic demand,and a renewed focus on supply chain security leave China w

4、ell-positioned to maintain its dominance across clean tech supply chains.The US followed a different trajectory.Investment grew modestly from 2018 to 2022 when the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)sparked a surge in new clean tech investment,but with the reversal of demand-side policies and the paring ba

5、ck of many IRA support measures,investment has reversed course,falling 17%in 2025 from its 2024 peak.Unlike Chinas pullback,which came after years of aggressive investment that had already secured supply chain dominance,the US slowdown leaves significant planned investments canceled or in limbo,wide

6、ning the gap with China.In this note,we leverage Clean Investment Monitor data tracking quarterly clean technology manufacturing investments to dive deeper into whats driving investment trends in these two major economies.Energy&Climate RHODIUM GROUP|ENERGY&CLIMATE US AND CHINA CLEAN TECH MANUFACTUR

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1. **全球清洁技术制造业投资下滑**:2025年全球投资降至1550亿美元,较2023年峰值(2650亿美元)下降42%,主要因中美投资减少。 2. **中国:政策调整主导降温**:2023年投资达1890亿美元峰值,2025年下降70%(主因产能过剩、价格战);太阳能投资2025年同比降80%,但规划产能仍庞大(电池产能2030年或翻倍)。 3. **美国:政策逆转致投资萎缩**:IRA法案推动2024年投资达500亿美元峰值,2025年下降17%;取消补贴后,2025年取消项目460亿美元(97%来自电动车供应链),EV销量预期2032年降至18-36%(原56-69%)。 4. **中美差距扩大**:中国通过长期政策巩固供应链主导地位,美国因政策不确定性导致大量项目搁置,差距进一步拉大。
**中美清洁科技差距** **中国产能过剩影响** **美国政策逆转后果**
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