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IRU & Upply & Ti:2026年 Q1欧洲公路货运运价发展基准报告(中译版)(37页).pdf

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1、THE EUROPEANROAD FREIGHT RATEDEVELOPMENTBENCHMARKTHE EUROPEANROAD FREIGHT RATEDEVELOPMENTBENCHMARKM A Y 2 0 2 6Q1 20261 IRU Upply Ti|The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark|Q1 2026-May 2026CONTENTS#01.European Road Freight Rate Benchmark Index .302.Volume Development03.Comparison of International L

2、anesComparison of Domestic LanesEuropean Road Freight Rates Sentiment Index 2.7Supply Side Issues04.05.06.13.19.26.33IRU Upply Ti|The European Road Freight Rate Benchmark|Q1 2026-May 202601EUROPEANROAD FREIGHT RATEBENCHMARKINDEX3Source:UpplyEuropean Road Freight Rate Benchmark Index01.IRU Upply Ti|T

3、he European Road Freight Rate Benchmark|Q1 2026-May 20264In Q1 2026,the European road freight rate indexes(Jan 2017=100)showed continued divergencebetween contract and spot markets.Contract rates rose to 140.1 index points,a solid 3.2-point increase quarter-on-quarter(QoQ)and an8.9-point increase ye

4、ar on year(YoY),reflecting sustained demand for contracted volumes at higherlevels.Meanwhile,spot rates edged down slightly to 132.3 index points,falling by 2.8 points QoQ and endingthe period 2.0 points lower YoY.This suggests a cooling-off period and a return to more normalconditions after the bus

5、y season.The upward momentum seen through mid-2025 has stalled.Data on RatesBENCHMARK SPOT AND CONTRACTThe European spot rate index declined after the holidays,reflecting the typical Q1 post-peak demandpattern.At the start of the year,European consumers remained cautious,as cost pressuresdampened ho

6、usehold spending across the EU.The Eurozone savings rate fell to 14.4%in Q4 2025,thelowest level since Q3 2023,confirming a downward trend.However,income growth(0.8%QoQ)isrising more slowly than inflation,leaving little buffer to absorb a price shock after the inflationarypressures triggered by the

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1. **欧洲公路货运指数分化**:2026年Q1合同运价指数升至140.1点(环比+3.2,同比+8.9),现货运价指数降至132.3点(环比-2.8,同比-2.0)。 2. **成本驱动上涨**:欧盟柴油价格Q1暴涨31%(3月单月),因霍尔木兹海峡关闭致油价飙升;HVO、CNG价格同步上行。 3. **需求与供应压力**:制造业PMI扩张(德国52.2、意大利51.3),但中东战争推高能源成本,抑制消费信心;司机短缺率达12.1%,卡车注册量同比降6%。 4. **区域运价差异**:国际航线中,巴黎-伯明翰合同运价涨幅最大(环比+8.4);国内航线西班牙现货运价同比+14.4,意大利合同运价环比-3.5。 5. ** sentiment指数看涨**:货运运价情绪指数升至16.9,64.4%受访者预期运价小幅上涨。
油价如何影响运价? 运费何时会降? 司机缺口有多大?
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