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Fastmarkets:2025航空未来:全球可持续航空燃料(SAF)价格与供应预测报告(网络研讨会PPT)(中译版)(28页).pdf

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1、2The Futures of Flight:Sustainable Aviation Fuels Price and Supply Forecasts WebinarTore AldenHead of Agricultural Analytics2025|Fastmarkets|The Future of Flight:Sustainable Aviation Fuels Price and Supply Forecasts Webinar3Technology,feedstock availability and global markets contribute to an ever-e

2、volving future for SAFAs SAF programs propagate around the world,producers will need flexibility.3Technologies are competing for viability in the race to build SAF capacity.1Feedstock availability is key detriment to building sustainable SAF supply chains.22025|Fastmarkets|The Future of Flight:Susta

3、inable Aviation Fuels Price and Supply Forecasts Webinar4Technology,feedstock availability and global markets contribute to an ever-evolving future for SAFAs SAF programs propagate around the world,producers will need flexibility.3Technologies are competing for viability in the race to build SAF cap

4、acity.1Feedstock availability is key detriment to building sustainable SAF supply chains.22025|Fastmarkets|The Future of Flight:Sustainable Aviation Fuels Price and Supply Forecasts Webinar5Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids(HEFA)Alcohol-to-Jet(AtJ)Power-to-Liquid(PtL)Three technologies are compe

5、ting for viability in the race to build SAF capacity and each have strengths and weaknesses.2025|Fastmarkets|The Future of Flight:Sustainable Aviation Fuels Price and Supply Forecasts Webinar20256|Fastmarkets|Presentation nameHEFA is the primary source of SAF capacity in the North American marketStr

6、engths1.Mature Technology2.Near-Term Scalability3.Policy Recognition4.Massive InvestmentWeaknesses1.Feedstock Dependence2.Price Volatility3.Competition for Feedstock from Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,00020232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420

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1. **SAF技术竞争**:HEFA(成熟、近期能扩容)、AtJ(原料灵活、减排潜力高)、PtL(终极低碳方案)三技术竞争,2035年全球宣布产能分别为4500、900、1450百万加仑/年。 2. **原料瓶颈**:美国SAF供应受原料制约,2030年或难达30亿加仑目标;中国UCO(废食用油)成全球关键原料,2024年美国月均进口中国UCO 2.28亿磅。 3. **价格与政策**:SAF价格预计短期平稳;美国IRA政策(如45z税收抵免)推动需求,CORSIA及45z信用价值或抵消混合税优惠。 4. **市场灵活性**:全球SAF项目需灵活应对原料与燃料需求,政策差异(欧洲强制 mandate vs. 美国激励)要求生产商适应多变环境。
**SAF技术哪家强?** **原料供应够吗?** **政策如何影响?**
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