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Ti:2026年 Q1航空货运运价追踪报告(英文版)(17页).pdf

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1、Air Freight Rate Tracker Q1 2026Air Freight Rate Tracker Q1 20262GLOBAL INTRODUCTIONAir freight is bracing for a rate surge as Middle East airspace closures hit the Gulfs transit hubs while the Strait of Hormuz crisis rattles energy and ocean shipping.Global trade faced a massive shock on February 2

2、8,2026,following a military escalation in the Middle East which triggered immediate closures of the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal,while also grounding flights across the Gulf.This regional instability is now a primary driver of worldwide logistics disruptions.Airspace restrictions and no fly z

3、ones have prompted airlines to suspend or reroute services.Ocean carriers have paused sailings through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.DSV announced that customers should anticipate potential delays or even cancellations,space constraints,and short-notice rate adjustments in the coming day

4、s and weeks.As capacity tightens and carriers reassess risk exposure across key corridors,global air cargo markets are entering a more volatile phase.As airlines redeploy aircraft,extend routings to avoid affected airspace,and suspend selected services,the amount of capacity is being squeezed across

5、 multiple trade lanes.Even where schedules remain intact,longer flight times and operational inefficiencies can reduce available payload and limit how quickly networks can recover.In addition,pressure points are emerging on Asia-linked routes.The most acute constraints are expected on Far EastEurope

6、 trade lanes,where any detours or hub disruption can quickly ripple through connectivity.AsiaMiddle East corridors will also be affected,where capacity is especially sensitive to service changes and routing restrictions.For shippers,that typically translates into longer lead times and tighter bookin

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1. **中东局势冲击全球物流**:2026年2月28日中东军事升级导致霍尔木兹海峡、苏伊士运河关闭及海湾航班停飞,引发全球物流中断,成为主要驱动因素。 2. **运力收紧与运价波动**:航班取消、改道导致运力压缩,尤其亚欧航线受影响最显著;现货运价面临上行压力,日间波动加剧(如2月亚欧航线运价环比涨5.9%-8.4%)。 3. **燃油成本成关键变量**:地缘风险推高油价(布伦特原油涨约10%至80美元/桶),若持续,航司可能通过燃油附加费转嫁成本。 4. **需求分化与区域影响**:中国跨境电商需求减弱(受美国de minimis政策影响),但亚欧航线需求同比仍增3.6%;中东枢纽关闭导致海湾地区货运量骤降,部分货流转移至土耳其、沙特等替代枢纽。 5. **Q2展望依赖冲突进展**:若中东局势缓和,运价或趋稳;否则运力紧张、燃油附加费上涨将持续施压。
**中东乱局如何影响空运?** **空运费率会暴涨吗?** **燃油成本如何推高运价?**
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