美国太阳能市场：一场不断演变的竞赛.pdf

1、US Solar Market:An Evolving RaceSolarPlus USAHall WelbornMarch 24,20261BNEF coverage2The solar sprint3Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Full data in BNEFs Capacity Tool(web|terminal).New build PV,historical and forecastGlobal solar has seen rapid growth over the past decade56751011061181511822524445926556496

2、8874676277577880583085587501002003004005006007008009001,00020152017201920212023202520272029203120332035ThousandsMainland ChinaNorth America&CaribbeanEuropeIndiaOther AsiaCentral and South AmericaMiddle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaBuffer/unknownGigawatts(DC)4But as any runner knows,it is d

3、ifficult to maintain top speed5567510110611815118225244459265564968874676277577880583085587501002003004005006007008009001,00020152017201920212023202520272029203120332035ThousandsMainland ChinaNorth America&CaribbeanEuropeIndiaOther AsiaCentral and South AmericaMiddle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan

4、 AfricaBuffer/unknownGigawatts(DC)Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Full data in BNEFs Capacity Tool(web|terminal).New build PV,historical and forecastFirst ever dip in global solar installations expected in 20266Source:BloombergNEF,Australian Energy Market Operator;Caiso;Chile:Coordinador Elctrico Nacional;

5、China National Energy Administration;Japan:Kyushu Electric,Shikoku Electric,Chugoku Electric,Kansai Electric,Hokuriku Electric,Chubu Electric,Tokyo Electric,Tohoku Electric,Hokkaido Electric,Bundesnetzagentur,UK National Energy System OperatorThe share of hours in a year when wind or solar curtailme

6、nt took place in selected power marketsCurtailment hurts solar project economics0%5%10%15%20%SpainCaisoJapanChinaAustraliaUKChile2024202571,6811,3051,4181,27333738682209330402004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800PolysiliconWaferCellModuleGigawatts per yearCapacity in mainland ChinaCapacity outside of