如何在经济下行周期中保持不倒闭.pdf

1、How to Stay Afloat in a Down CycleA Case for Operations ConsolidationFractal Energy Storage Consultants 10+years of utility scale consulting experiences 1,000+consulting engagements Project Development Strategy Market Analysis Procurement Contracts M&A Independent Due Diligence205/12/2025Fractal Ene

2、rgy Storage Consultants|2026Fractal Energy Storage Consultants Active market experience 16 GWh+Integration and operations experience 24X7 Monitoring Market participants Trading and BESS dispatch305/12/2025Fractal Energy Storage Consultants|2026Agenda Revenue cycles:Large parts of the market are in a

3、 down cycle.Merchant uncertainty:Price uncertainty and trade efficiency.Cost structures:Too many projects are inefficient on cost.Maintenance:Generally overlooked.Consolidation:Ownership,dispatch,and O&M.Contracts:The right counterparty and the cost of hedging.403/24/2026Fractal Energy Storage Consu

4、ltants|2026Lower Energy Price Spreads in ERCOT TB2:The energy price spread between top 2 and bottom 2 hours.Average price in 2023 was$193/MWh.2024 price spread was 59%lower.2025 price spread was 67%lower.503/24/2026Fractal Energy Storage Consultants|2026Data source:ERCOTLower Energy Price Spreads No

5、t Unique to ERCOT603/24/2026Fractal Energy Storage Consultants|2026 Compared to 2022,TB4 in CAISO NP15 was 37%lower in 2023,50%in 2024,and 52%in 2025.SP15 in 2025 was 47%lower compared to 2022.Data source:CAISOStaying Upside:Revenue Cycles Are Normal703/24/2026Fractal Energy Storage Consultants|2026

6、Stayin Upside:Load Growth Bigger Peaks 803/24/2026Fractal Energy Storage Consultants|2026Source:Pew Research Execution Is Not Perfect:Real Time903/24/2026Fractal Energy Storage Consultants|2026Data source:ERCOTExecution Is Not Perfect:Real Time With Day Ahead 1003/24/2026Fractal Energy Storage Consu