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PitchBook:2026年第一季度私募资本收益晴雨表:私募市场业绩实时洞察(中译版)(21页).pdf

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1、Q1 2026 PRIVATE CAPITAL RETURN BAROMETERSTimely insights into private market performanceQUANT RESEARCHPrivate CapitalReturn Barometers2026Q1Q1 2026 PRIVATE CAPITAL RETURN BAROMETERSFor the most up-to-date PitchBook Private Capital Return Barometers,please refer to our Insights web page.Institutional

2、 Research GroupJacobie FullertonQuantitative Research APublished on May 12,2026Overview3Private equity 6Venture capital9Private debt12Infrastructure15Natural resources18Contents2Q1 2026 PRIVATE CAPITAL RETURN BAROMETERSThe PitchBook Private Capital Return Barometers are a suite of models designed to

3、 evaluate the current return environment for US private market fundsencompassing PE,VC,private debt,infrastructure,and natural resources.These models provide a data-driven assessment of private market performance,leveraging macroeconomic and market-fundamental factors to quantify return trends.Colle

4、ctively,we refer to these models as the PitchBook Private Capital Barometers,or simply the“Barometers.”The advantages of PitchBooks BarometersPrivate market returns tend to move more slowly and are far less transparent than those in public markets.Aside from maintaining an active private market allo

5、cation and receiving periodic updates from GPs,participants often must wait several months for closed-end funds to report performance before gaining a clear,comprehensive view of returns.Even then,fund net asset values(NAVs)and returns can lag shifts in the broader macroeconomic environment.To bridg

6、e this reporting gap and provide a timelier view of private market fund performance,we developed the PitchBook Private Capital Return Barometers,a factor-based framework designed to estimate returns in near real time.The Barometers distill market fundamentals into a single score,quantifying the curr

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1. **PitchBook私人资本回报指标**:评估美国私募市场(PE、VC、私募债、基建、自然资源)回报环境,提供实时"现报"回报数据,早于PitchBook基准报告。 2. **核心数据(2026Q3)**: - PE得分45,现报回报3.4%;VC得分43,现报5.5%;私募债得分43,现报2.2%;基建得分50,现报2.3%;自然资源得分72(显著上升),现报5.1%。 3. **关键功能**: - 通过宏观经济与市场指标生成0-100分(50为中性),识别回报偏离基本面的时期; - 区分"已平滑"与"未平滑"回报,提升高波动期解释力(如PE在极端市场下解释力达85%)。 4. **唯一亮点**:自然资源因大宗商品价格(油、铝)推动回报显著改善,其他资产类回报趋稳。
私募回报趋势? 资产表现如何? 市场信号解读?
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